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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: February 2 - 6

Published 02/01/2015, 08:15 AM
Aussie ends the week close to a 5-1/2 year low against the greenback
AUD/USD
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DX
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar ended the week close to a five-and-a-half year low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, amid growing expectations for a near-term interest rate cut in Australia.

AUD/USD fell to 0.7719 on Thursday, a level not seen since July 2009, before subsequently consolidating at 0.7796 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.08% for the day but 1.76% lower for the week.

The Aussie lost 4.94% against the greenback in January as growing concerns over the health of the global economy dampened appetite for riskier assets.

Data released earlier in the week showed that inflation in Australia rose at its slowest annual pace in two and half years in the fourth quarter as fuel prices plunged.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday that consumer price inflation rose 0.2% in the last quarter, below expectations for a 0.3% gain.

Year-on-year, Australian CPI increased by 1.7% in the three months to December, compared to expectations for a 1.8% rise.

The soft inflation reading fuelled hopes that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates at the conclusion of its upcoming policy meeting on February 3.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the Commerce Department said in a report Friday that the economy expanded 2.6% in the final three months of 2014, below expectations for a 3.0% gain and slowing sharply from growth of 5.0% in the three months to September.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, ended the week at 95.00, down 0.01% for the day and 0.33% lower on the week.

The dollar had strengthened broadly on Thursday after the Federal Reserve indicated that interest rates could start to rise around mid-year.

Following its policy meeting on Wednesday, the Fed said it would keep rates on hold at least until June and reiterated its pledge to be patient on raising interest rates, while acknowledging the solid economic recovery and strong growth in the labor market.

In the week ahead, investors will be turning their attention to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for further indications on the strength of the recovery in the labor market.

Tuesday's policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of Australia will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 2

China is to release a report on the HSBC manufacturing index. The Asian nation is Australia's largest trade partner.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity. The country will also produce a report on personal income and spending.

Tuesday, February 3

Australia is to release data on building approvals and the trade balance. Later in the day, the Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The U.S. is to release data on factory orders.

Wednesday, February 4

China is to publish its HSBC service sector index.

The U.S. is to release a report on ADP nonfarm payrolls. Later in the day, the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on non-manufacturing activity.

Thursday, February 5

Australia is to publish data on retail sales.

The U.S. is to produce its weekly report on initial jobless claims in addition to data on the trade balance.

Friday, February 6

The RBA is to publish its monetary policy statement.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report, and data on wage growth.

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