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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: February 18 - 22

Published 02/17/2013, 09:56 AM
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar fell to a three-day low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, after U.S. data indicated that the economic recovery remains uneven.

AUD/USD hit 1.0286 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since February 12; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0303 by close of trade, down 0.1% for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0226, the low from February 12 and resistance at 1.0373, Friday’s high.

The New York Federal Reserve reported manufacturing in New York state expanded in February, while a survey showed a surprisingly strong rise in U.S. consumer sentiment.

The Empire State manufacturing index rebounded to 10.0 in February, from minus 7.8 in January, outstripping expectations for a reading of minus 2.

The University of Michigan said its index of consumer confidence rose to 76.3 from 73.8 in January, better than expectations for a reading of 74.8.

However, a separate report showed that industrial production in the U.S. slipped 0.1% in December after a revised 0.4% gain in December. Economists had been expecting an uptick of 0.2%.

Meanwhile, the Aussie was lower against the euro on Friday, with EUR/AUD hitting 1.2983 before settling back to 1.2961, 0.5% higher for the day.

The euro’s gains were limited after official data showed on Thursday that euro zone gross domestic product contracted by 0.6% in the three months to December, compared to expectations for a 0.4% decline.

It was the fastest rate of decline since 2009 and marked a third consecutive quarter of contraction.

Germany’s economy, the euro zone’s largest, contracted by 0.6% in the in the fourth quarter, more than expectations for a 0.5% drop on declining exports and investment.

Elsewhere Friday, a draft statement by the Group of 20 nations avoided singling Japan out for criticism over the recent weakness of its currency.

The G20 pledged that members would "refrain from competitive devaluation" and said that risks to the world economy had receded but growth remained too weak and unemployment too high.

In the week ahead investors will be awaiting Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, while the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes from its latest policy meeting on Tuesday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 18

Australia is to release official data on new vehicle sales, a leading indicator of investor confidence.

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the President’s Day holiday.

Tuesday, February 19

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish its monetary policy meeting minutes.
 
Wednesday, February 20

Australia is to release official data on the wage price index, as well as two indexes of leading economic indicators.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to release official data on building permits, a strong indicator of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts.

The U.S. is also to publish official data on producer prices, while the Federal Reserve is to release the minutes of its most recent policy meeting.

Thursday, February 21

The U.S. is to release official data on consumer price inflation as well as the weekly government report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to publish industry data on existing home sales, a report on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia and official data on crude oil stockpiles.

Friday, February 22

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is to testify before a parliamentary committee on monetary policy in Canberra; his comments will be closely watched for any indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.

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