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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: December 9 - 13

Published 12/08/2013, 09:29 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar bounced off a 12-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday to close modestly higher, but the greenback remained supported after data showed that the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected last month.

AUD/USD clawed back from 0.8990 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since September 3, to subsequently consolidate at 0.9104 by close of trade, up 0.46% on the day but 0.06% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8990, the low from December 8 and resistance at 0.9136, the high from December 4.

The U.S. economy added 203,000 jobs in November, above expectations for jobs growth of 180,000, the Labor Department said. The unemployment rate fell to a five-year low of 7.0% from 7.3% in October.

The report came one day after official data showed that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.6% in the three months to September, well above the preliminary estimate for 2.6%.

The robust data raised the possibility that the Fed may start to scale back its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program as soon as its next monthly meeting on December 17 - 18.

Meanwhile, in Australia, data released Thursday showed that Australia's trade deficit widened to AUD0.53 billion in October, from AUD0.27 billion the previous month. Analysts had expected the trade deficit to widen to AUD0.38 billion.

The report came a day after data showed that Australia's gross domestic product rose 0.6% in the third quarter, less than the expected 0.8% expansion, after an upwardly revised 0.7% rise in the three months to June.

At the end of its monthly policy meeting earlier in the week, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low 2.50%, in line with expectations.

Commenting on the decision, RBA Governor Stevens said the Aussie was "still uncomfortably high" and that a lower currency "is likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy."

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on retail sales data out of the U.S. to further gauge the strength of the economy and the need for stimulus.

Market players will also look ahead to a raft of Chinese economic data later in the week, including reports on inflation, industrial production and retail sales.

Official data released on Sunday showed that China’s trade surplus widened unexpectedly in November as exports rose more-than-expected, easing concerns over global growth prospects.

China’s trade surplus widened to USD33.8 billion last month from a surplus of USD31.1 billion in October, compared to estimates for a surplus of USD21.7 billion.  

Chinese exports climbed 12.7% from a year earlier, beating expectations for a 7.1% increase and following a 5.6% gain in October. Imports rose 5.3%, missing forecasts for a 7.2% increase.

China is Australia’s largest trade partner.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 9

China is to publish data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

Tuesday, December 10

China is to release data on industrial production and fixed asset investment.

Australia is to produce data on home loans, as well as private sector data on business confidence.

Wednesday, December 11

Australia is to release private sector data on consumer sentiment.

Thursday, December 12

Australia is to release data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate.

The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, December 13

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer price inflation.

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