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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: December 2 - 6

Published 12/01/2013, 08:46 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar bounced off a 12-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, however the greenback remained supported amid expectations the Federal Reserve will start to taper its stimulus program at one of its next few meetings.

AUD/USD clawed back from 0.9056 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since September 4, to subsequently consolidate at 0.9110 by close of trade, up 0.08% on the day but 0.65% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9036, the low from September 4 and resistance at 0.9148, the high from November 28.

Demand for the greenback remained underpinned after minutes of the Fed’s October meeting said the central bank could start scaling back its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in the “coming months” if the economy continues to improve as expected.

The Australian dollar came under additional pressure amid speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia will intervene in the foreign-exchange market to weaken the Aussie.

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Phillip Lowe said earlier in the week that the threshold for the central bank intervening in the currency market was “fairly high.”

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November. The Fed, which holds its next meeting on December 17-18, has said the timing of its tapering depends on the health of the labor and housing markets.

The outcome of Tuesday’s RBA policy meeting will also be in focus.

The country was also expected to release a flurry of key economic data in the coming week, including reports on third quarter GDP, retail sales, building approvals and trade figures for October.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 2

Australia is to release data on building approvals, a leading indicator of future construction activity, as well as a report on company operating profits.

China is to release the final reading of its closely watched HSBC manufacturing PMI. The Asian nation is Australia’s largest trade partner.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at an event in Washington. Later Monday, the Institute of Supply Management is to release its manufacturing PMI.

Tuesday, December 3

Australia is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The nation is also to produce data on the current account.

The RBA is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision.

Wednesday, December 4

Australia is to release data on third quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days.

The Institute of Supply Management is to release its services PMI. The U.S is also to publish data on new home sales as well as data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

Thursday, December 5

Australia is to publish data on the trade balance.

The U.S. is to publish a revised estimate of third quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. Meanwhile, the Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to publish data on factory orders.

Friday, December 6

The University of Michigan is to release the preliminary reading of its consumer sentiment index. The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

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