Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: December 17 - 21

Published 12/16/2012, 09:58 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session close to a three-month high against its U.S. counterpart, as more easing by the Federal Reserve weighed on demand for the greenback and offset concerns over the U.S. fiscal cliff.

AUD/USD hit 1.0584 on Wednesday, the pair’s highest since September 14; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0564 by close of trade Friday, up 0.78% for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0509, Friday’s low and short-term resistance at 1.0584, Wednesday’s high.

The Department of Labor said Friday U.S. consumer inflation fell 0.3% in November, down for the first time in six months on the back of lower gasoline prices, bringing the annualized rate of inflation to 1.8%.

The soft inflation data warranted continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. central bank said Wednesday it would continue to purchase USD85 billion a month of government bonds and mortgage based securities in order to shore up the economic recovery.

The Fed also said interest rates would remain close to zero as long as inflation forecasts remain near the bank’s 2% target and until the U.S. unemployment rate declines to 6.5% or less.

The Aussie drew additional support from data showing Chinese manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in more than a year in December. China’s preliminary HSBC manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9, up from a final reading of 50.5 in November.

The upbeat data helped eased concerns over the growth outlook for the world’s second largest economy.

Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor developments surrounding the fiscal cliff in the U.S., approximately USD600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1, unless a divided Congress and the White House can work out a compromise in the two weeks left before the deadline.

President Barack Obama said recently that any solution must include spending cuts and raising revenue, including increasing taxes on the wealthiest. Republican leaders say they will agree to higher revenue, but they want to close loopholes or reduce tax breaks rather than raise rates.

Without a deal, the U.S. could fall back into recession and drag much of the world down with it.

In the coming week, investors will be continuing to monitor the progress of talks in Washington on the fiscal cliff. Market players will also focus on the release of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s most recent policy setting meeting.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 17

The U.S. is to publish official data on manufacturing activity in New York State, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as a report on the balance of domestic and foreign investment in U.S. securities.

Tuesday, December 18

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy meeting, which contain important insights into current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to produce government data on the current account.

Wednesday, December 19

The U.S. is to publish government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts. The country is also to release official data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, December 20

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as revised data on third quarter growth and a report on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia. In addition, the U.S. is to publish industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, December 21

The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, as well as government data on personal income and spending.

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