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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: August 1- 5

Published 07/31/2011, 09:04 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the Australian dollar pull back from a record high against its U.S. counterpart, but remain well supported amid expectations for a near-term interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

AUD/USD hit 1.1079 on Wednesday, the pair’s highest since it was floated in December 1985; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0992 by close of trade on Friday, adding 1.5% over the week, the second consecutive weekly gain

The pair was likely to find support at 1.0910, Friday’s low and resistance at 1.1079, Wednesday’s record high.

The Aussie soared to a record high on Wednesday after official data showed that consumer price inflation rose 0.9% in the second quarter, above expectations for a 0.7% increase.

CPI accelerated at an annualized rate of 3.6%, surpassing expectations for a 3.4% gain and recorded the biggest annual increase since 2008.

The higher-than-expected inflation data added to expectations for a near-term rate hike by the RBA in order to keep inflation inside its targeted range of 2% to 3%.

At present, benchmark interest rates are 4.75% in Australia, compared with zero in the U.S., attracting investors to the nation’s higher-yielding currency.

Elsewhere, government data released Friday showed that U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of just 1.3% in the second quarter, below expectations for growth of 1.7%. First quarter growth was revised sharply lower to 0.4%, down from 1.9%.

Meanwhile, with only days to go before an August 2 deadline to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, Congressional leaders and the White House had not reached a consensus that would avert a downgrade or default on the nation’s debt.

In the week ahead, the dollar looks likely to remain under pressure as investors await progress on a deal to raise the debt ceiling, while Friday’s report on U.S. non-farm payrolls will also be in focus.

Also next week, the RBA is to announce its benchmark interest rate on Tuesday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, August 1

Markets in Australia are to remain closed for a national holiday.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to publish data on manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, August 2

Australia is to release official data on building approvals, a gauge of future construction activity, as well as reports on house price inflation and commodity prices.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement will be followed by the bank’s rate statement, which gives important insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish official data on personal consumption expenditures and personal spending, which is linked to consumer inflation.

Wednesday, August 3

Australia is to publish official data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, as well as data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services.

In the U.S., payroll processing firm ADP is to publish a report on non-farm payrolls, which leads government data by two days.

In addition, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish data on service sector growth, a leading indicator of economic health. The U.S. is also to publish data on factory orders and crude oil inventories.

Thursday, August 4

The U.S. is to publish government data on initial jobless claims, as well as official data on natural gas stockpiles.

Friday, August 5


The RBA is to publish its monetary policy statement, which gives valuable insights into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on non-farm payrolls, as well as data on average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate.

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