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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: April 11-15

Published 04/10/2011, 09:03 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the Australian dollar rally to the highest level against its U.S. counterpart since it was floated in 1983 on Friday, after upbeat domestic employment data boosted expectations for a rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

AUD/USD hit 1.0581 on Friday, an all-time high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0564 by close of trade, climbing 1.6% over the week.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.0411, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.0581, Friday’s record high.

The Aussie was boosted after a government report released Thursday showed that the country’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a 27-month low of 4.9% in March from 5.0% in February. Australian employers added 37,800 workers in March from the previous month, surpassing expectations for a gain of 22,700.

Meanwhile, the greenback came under pressure as the White House and Congress attempted to break a U.S. budget deadlock in order to avoid a government shutdown.

On Tuesday, the RBA left interest rates on hold at 4.75% for the fourth straight meeting. Governor Glenn Stevens said inflation was consistent with the central bank’s goal and the currency’s strength was helping ease price pressures.

Also Tuesday, official data showed that Australia’s trade balance unexpectedly swung to a deficit of AUD0.21 billion in February, from a revised AUD1.43 billion surplus in January.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking towards March U.S. retail sales data to gauge the strength of consumer spending, as well as U.S. data on consumer and producer price inflation. Meanwhile, Australia is to publish reports on consumer sentiment and business confidence.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 11

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy. Also Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Janet Yellen is to speak.

Tuesday, April 12

Australia is to publish a report on business confidence compiled by the National Australia Bank.

The U.S. is to release government data on its trade balance, as well as a report on import prices, an important indicator of inflation. The U.S. is also to publish monthly data on the federal budget balance.

Wednesday, April 13

Australia is to publish a report on consumer sentiment complied by Westpac, while the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Glenn Stevens, is to speak at a public engagement in New York.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish government data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to publish official data on business inventories and crude oil stockpiles while the Federal Reserve is to publish its Beige Book.

Thursday, April 14

Australia is to publish a report on inflation expectations, as well as official data on new vehicle sales, a leading indicator of economic confidence.

The U.S. is to publish official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation. The country is also to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims, an important signal of overall economic health.

Friday, April 15

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on consumer price inflation. In addition, the U.S. is to publish official data on industrial production and the capacity utilization rate, while the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is to publish its manufacturing index.

The U.S. is also to publish a report on the balance of domestic and foreign investment, while the University of Michigan is to publish preliminary data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.


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