Forex - AUD/USD higher, but analysts still see downside

Published 06/23/2013, 09:47 PM
Updated 06/23/2013, 09:48 PM
AUD/USD
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AUD/JPY
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AUD/NZD
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Investing.com - The embattled Australian dollar traded higher against its U.S. counterpart during Monday’s Asian session even as some analysts and traders see more downside ahead for the Aussie.

In Asian trading Monday, AUD/USD rose 0.22% to 0.9238. The pair is likely to find support at 0.9162, Thursday’s low and a 33-month low and resistance at 0.9311, Thursday’s session high.

AUD/USD hit 0.9162 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since September 8, 2010; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9212 by close of trade on Friday, 3.73% lower for the week.

Buoying the case for more downside in the Aussie is the fact that the currency was hit from multiple angles last week. The greenback surged after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that the bank could begin slowing its USD85 billion-a-month bond purchasing program by the end of 2013 and wind it down completely by the middle of 2014 if the economy picks up as the central bank expects.

The Aussie also came under pressure after data Thursday showed that manufacturing activity hit a nine-month low in June.

China’s HSBC preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 48.3 in June from 49.2 in May as new orders declined, indicating that the slowdown in manufacturing is worsening. China is Australia's largest export market.

Many analysts and traders expect the Aussie to keep falling due to declining commodities demand and slack Chinese economic data.

Weak economic data in the Asia-Pacific region combined with the possible end of U.S. easing could prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower interest rates again, which would likely inflict more damage on the Aussie.

Elsewhere, AUD/JPY rose 0.57% to 90.71 while AUD/NZD fell 0.13% to 1.1890.


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