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Forex - AUD gives up some gains as China data shows import drop

Published 04/09/2014, 11:28 PM
Updated 04/09/2014, 11:33 PM
Austrlian dollar gains ease after China trade data
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar eased back Thursday, but retained most gains after rise in new jobs and an unexpected drop in the employment rate, reversing early trade and the Japanese yen followed suit after a central bank board member said upward pressure on prices would increase.

AUD/USD traded at 0.9414, up 0.25%, after hitting a multi-month high of $0.9436 as 18,100 new jobs were added in March, compared to a gain of 5,000 expected and the unemployment rate dipped to 5.8%, compared for an expectation to stay flat at 6%.

Earlier, April inflation expectations from the Melbourne Insititue reached the highest since July 2013 at a pace of 2.4%, compared to 2.1% in March.

China data showed a trade surplus of $7.71 billion for March, compared to an expectation of $900 million, erasing some concerns after a deficit of $22.9 billion in the previous month.

However, imports fell 11.3% year4-on-year, compared to an expected gain of 2.4%, taking some steam away from the Australian dolalr with China a top export destination for commodities such as iron ore. Exports fell 6.6%, compared to expectations for a gain of 4.0%.

USD/JPY traded at 101.96, down 0.03%, reversing earlier weakness seen after new machinery orders for February plunged 8.3%, compared with an expected drop of 3.0% month-on-month. March bank lending rose 2.3%, compared to a 2.4% gain in the previous month

But comments from Bank of Japan board member Ryuzo Miyao led to a stronger yen after saying that prices and inflation expectations are on the upswing and ruled out further aggressive monetary easing.

"The possibility is high that upward pressure on prices will increase broadly and inflation expectations will rise," Miyao said ina prepared speech to business leaders in Okayama City.

Overnight, the dollar took a dive after the minutes from the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting revealed monetary authorities unanimously voted to scrap a threshold that would have triggered interest-rate hikes.

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors unanimously voted to scrap a threshold at which interest rates would rise once the unemployment rate hits 6.5%, according to the minutes of the Fed's March policy meeting.

In the past, the Fed had indicated rates could rise when the unemployment rate hits or approaches 6.5% provided that figure accompanied a 2.5% inflation rate.

Today, the headline unemployment rate stands at 6.7%, not far from the previous threshold, though inflation remains well below 2.5%, prompting the Federal Reserve to do away with its rate-hike target.

"Participants agreed that the existing forward guidance, with its reference to a 6.5% threshold for the unemployment rate, was becoming outdated as the unemployment rate continued its expected gradual decline," the minutes read.

"Most participants felt that the quantitative thresholds had been very useful in communicating policy intentions when employment was far from mandate-consistent levels, but, with the economy having moved appreciably closer to maximum employment, the forward guidance should emphasize that the Committee is focusing more on a broader set of economic indicators."

The dollar dropped on the news, as Fed Chair Janet Yellen stating that policy must remain accommodative for some time to come.

The March policy meeting minutes reflected that stance.

"With respect to forward guidance about the federal funds rate, all members judged that, as the unemployment rate was likely to fall below 6.5% before long, it was appropriate to replace the existing quantitative thresholds at this meeting," the minutes read.

"Almost all members judged that the new language should be qualitative in nature and should indicate that, in determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 0.25% target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee would assess progress, both realized and expected, toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation."

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.01% at 79.60.

On Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department is to release its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

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