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For Iceland's economy, Icesave casts a long shadow

Published 01/15/2010, 11:03 AM
Updated 01/15/2010, 11:06 AM

* Icesave impasse weighs on investments in Iceland

* Icelandic firms without access to foreign capital

* Row could delay IMF programme

By Niklas Pollard and Omar Valdimarsson

REYKJAVIK, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Eight months ago, Ulfar Eysteinsson vowed he would not shave until interest rates in Iceland fell below 10 percent.

For a while it looked like he would be breaking out his razor any day, but the "Icesave" row with Britain and the Netherlands has changed all that, raising doubts about further rate cuts from their current 11 percent.

"I just hope they won't raise interest rates. It's getting hot with all this growth," said Eysteinsson, a chef in his 60s.

Like many Icelanders, he is weary of the Icesave affair, which has clogged up Iceland's financial arteries for more than a year and which now threatens growth and IMF aid.

Icelanders are to vote by March 6 on a deal to repay money lost in Icesave accounts, which lured online savers in Britain and the Netherlands. Those governments compensated savers when the bank collapsed and now want their money back from Reykjavik.

But opinion polls show voters are likely to reject what are seen as the harsh terms of the agreement.

While ordinary Icelanders grapple with high interest rates needed to shelter the currency while the Icesave dispute is being resolved -- businesses suffer from a lack of capital.

"The basic reason why we need to have this settled is to re-open access to foreign capital markets and our access to foreign loans and financial services," Vilhjalmur Egilsson, secretary general of the Confederation of Icelandic Employers.

"The markets are essentially closed except for the loans that the government is securing."

"PARALYSED"

The lack of capital is crippling investment in everything from energy to aluminium plants, while the government has been too distracted by Icesave to get on with other business.

"It's been difficult to get other things addressed and we see that on very specific bills as regards fishing policy," said Eggert Gudmundsson, chief executive of fishing and fish processing company HB Grandi.

"There is just no time to even discuss them," he said. "Partly, this has paralysed the management of the country."

Under the terms of the deal, Iceland must pay up to 4 percent of GDP growth after an initial grace period. Many Icelanders fume at the 5.55 percent interest and that Iceland would remain saddled with the debt even if it is not paid in full by 2024 as planned.

In an outlook drawn up before the president unexpectedly rejected the Icesave deal and forced a referendum, the government saw gross domestic product edging up to 1.52 trillion Icelandic crowns ($12.2 billion) this year after a dismal 2009.

But this forecast includes 282 billion crowns of private and public investment, money which is in doubt unless the Icesave dispute is cleared up, uncorking the flow of foreign capital.

"That would of course mean less economic growth, a bigger fiscal deficit, problems with the currency and certainly we would have a much harder time lifting the capital controls and easing interest rates," Economy Minister Gylfi Magnusson said.

For the moment, the only substantial foreign capital available is through an International Monetary Fund aid programme supported by Iceland's Nordic neighbours. Magnusson said this week this might be delayed due to the Icesave dispute.

The $2.1 billion of IMF aid, with a further around $3 billion pledged by European countries, is vital for Iceland to be able to finance a recovery from its worst economic downturn.

"If we are going to do that through domestic savings it is clear, at least to me, that the recovery will be much more difficult, because we have households that have a big job in just rebuilding their own balance sheets," Icelandic Central Bank Chief Economist Thorarinn Petursson said.

In addition, private capital flows across the world tended to closely follow the progress of IMF programmes, he added.

"It's like a health warranty," Petursson said. (Editing by Myra MacDonald)

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