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Fed's Yellen: slow recovery to start in late 2009

Published 06/30/2009, 09:01 PM
Updated 06/30/2009, 09:08 PM

SAN FRANCISCO, June 30 (Reuters) - The recession in the United States is likely to end later in 2009, ushering in a "frustratingly slow" recovery marked by continued high unemployment, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen said.

"I am not optimistic that the economy will spring back to normal anytime soon," Yellen said in remarks prepared for a speech to the Commonwealth Club of California in San Francisco on Tuesday.

The jobless rate is likely to rise and it could take several years to return to full employment, Yellen said -- a period that could intensify downward pressure on wages and prices.

In her first extended remarks on the economy since early May, Yellen said that undesirably low inflation was the biggest issue on the medium-term horizon.

"I'll put my cards on the table right away. I think the predominant risk is that inflation will be too low, not too high, over the next several years," she said.

"I expect core inflation will dip to about 1 percent over the next year and remain below 2 percent for several years."

Yellen is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2009.

Against the backdrop of low inflation and a shaky recovery, Yellen hinted that the Fed would be in no hurry to raise interest rates or reverse the various programs in place to get credit flowing in the economy.

"I'm more concerned that we will be tempted to tighten policy too soon, thereby aborting recovery," Yellen said, citing the notorious blunders of the Fed committed in the 1930s.

"I do not believe that there is a real threat of high inflation in the current situation." (Reporting by Ros Krasny; Editing by Jan Dahinten)

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