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FACTBOX-G20 turns spotlight on shortcomings of big economies

Published 04/15/2011, 08:27 PM
Updated 04/15/2011, 08:40 PM
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WASHINGTON, April 15 (Reuters) - At least seven of the world's leading economies will undergo scrutiny of their economic policies under a new plan to help prevent future financial crises like the one of 2007-09.

All Group of 20 countries will be judged on indicators such as debt and budget deficits as well as trade and investment flows, and may face reviews by the International Monetary Fund which could lead to suggestions for policy fixes.

At least seven major economies will automatically go into the so-called second stage reviews, based on their size.

Those nations are the United States, China, Japan, Germany, Britain, France and India, according to G20 officials.

Any policy fixes suggested by the IMF will not be binding. Instead the group hopes that peer pressure will work to smooth out dangerous imbalances in the world economy.

Below are summaries of the policy challenges in the seven countries that will undergo automatic review.

UNITED STATES

The world's biggest economy's public debt has swelled to more than 60 percent of annual economic output. With a budget deficit of about 10 percent of output, it will grow further.

The Obama administration is likely to respond to any G20 calls for fiscal discipline by pointing to its newly announced plans to hack $4 trillion from the budget deficit over the next 12 years through spending cuts and tax hikes on the rich.

The IMF has cast doubt about Washington's ability to meet a previous goal of halving its deficit by 2013, and his current goal announced this week is to reduce the deficit to 2.5 percent of gross domestic product by 2015.

What Washington most wants from the G20 process is to get China to rely more on domestic consumption and less on exports, a move that would open up opportunities for U.S. business.

CHINA

China, now the world's No. 2 economy, this week reported its foreign-exchange reserves topped $3 trillion. In the years leading up to the financial crisis, much of this cashpile was invested in Western markets and helped fuel excessive risk-taking by banks. That in turn led to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

The United States claims China saves too much and spends too little because it keeps the yuan undervalued against the dollar, thus aggravating Washington's trade deficit.

China has said repeatedly it will only let the yuan rise gradually -- it's up more than 4 percent against the dollar since mid-2010 -- and has expressed skepticism about the G20 guidelines, seeing them as one more form of Western pressure.

The G20 communique said the new policy mechanism would take "due account" of exchange rates among other policies, appearing to give China room to keep the yuan off the table.

JAPAN

Japan will come under scrutiny for its huge current account surplus, which stands at around 3 percent of its total economy. Tokyo probably won't object to any peer review process as it can argue that the surplus will soon take care of itself. That's because an aging population will lead to a falling savings rate and reduce the amounts that Japanese investors have available to invest overseas. Japanese officials have said submitting to a review may also be helpful in nudging China into doing the same.

GERMANY

With all the focus on China, Germany often slips beneath the radar when talk turns to export-driven economies. The country ran a surplus on its current account, the broadest possible measure of trade and investment flows, of about 5.3 percent of output last year, though the IMF sees that dipping a bit this year.

Subjecting Germany to an in-depth review may be complex as Europe's position is that the entire 17-country euro zone should be examined if any of its members are named.

From that angle, Germany's situation will look more benign, as its surpluses and those of other northern European countries would offset deficits in countries such as Italy, Spain, Greece and Ireland, leaving the euro zone largely in balance and reducing the likelihood of any calls for policy fixes.

BRITAIN

Britain's biggest challenge is its budget deficit, which jumped above 9 percent of gross domestic product on an internationally comparable basis in the 2009/10 fiscal year. A rapidly rising debt-to-GDP ratio and high private sector indebtedness are also likely to spark concern.

However, Britain's finance minister, George Osborne, welcomed the possibility of closer scrutiny by the IMF on Friday. Britain's coalition government of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, which came to power in May 2010, blames the previous Labour administration for the hefty deficit, and set out a five-year plan to largely eliminate the budget deficit in an emergency budget a month after taking office. The scale of the cuts is likely to provide London with a strong case to make to the rest of the G20 that it is dealing with its problems, even if they are unpopular among voters at home.

FRANCE

France, the euro zone's second-largest economy, has made curbing a ballooning debt one of its top priorities and is battling to bring down its budget deficit from 7 percent last year to a target of 5.7 percent in 2011. One of the world's most generous welfare systems has helped fuel a quadrupling of France's debt since the 1970s and the OECD forecasts it will stabilize at around 90 percent of GDP in the coming years. France will probably have to take tough measures to meet its medium-term deficit commitments, an unpalatable prospect with presidential elections due next year. High labor taxes and growth in real wages have also made French exports less competitive, leading to a widening trade deficit.

INDIA

With a current account deficit that the IMF projects will hit 3.7 percent of GDP this year, India stands out for the wrong reason: it has the largest deficit as a share of GDP among the seven countries the G20 will examine.

Its 8.2 percent economic growth rate forecast for this year puts it up there with the best of the fast-growing "BRICS" economies, which have led the global economy out of recession. But India has not been able to match China's progress in pulling its population out of poverty.

India, however, may score better than China when it comes to the G20's review of exchange rate flexibility. The rupee is partially convertible. (Reporting by Reuters IMF/G20 team; editing by Neil Stempleman)

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