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FACTBOX-Ukraine's politics and finances

Published 12/18/2008, 11:43 AM
Updated 12/18/2008, 11:45 AM
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KIEV, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko called on Thursday for the dismissal of Central Bank Chairman Volodymyr Stelmakh after blaming the bank for the hryvnia currency's fall to all-time lows against the dollar.

Following are key facts about Ukraine's politics and finances and why the ex-Soviet state is especially vulnerable to heightened risk aversion among international investors.

POLITICS

* Ukraine has been plagued by political turbulence since "Orange Revolution" protests in 2004 brought to power President Viktor Yushchenko and a team committed to moving closer to the West and joining NATO and the European Union.

Rows pitting Yushchenko against his former ally Yulia Tymoshenko, who has twice served as his prime minister, undermined the "orange" camp and brought down governments.

A coalition between parties backed by the two leaders was reinstated last week, resolving for the time being the latest deadlock and avoiding a snap parliamentary poll. But tension still runs high between the two antagonists.

* Upheaval -- and trouble forming a stable ruling coalition -- reflect Ukraine's longstanding division into the nationalist west and centre, which looks to the EU and United States, and the Russian-speaking east and south, friendlier towards Moscow.

* Relations with Russia, bumpy throughout the post-Soviet period, have sunk to unprecedented lows over Yushchenko's denunciation of Moscow's military intervention in Georgia.

The neighbours are periodically locked in disputes over energy supplies and prices. Russian giant Gazprom on Thursday said it would cut off supplies from January unless more than $2 billion in arrears were paid by the end of the year.

CURRENCY POLICY

* The hryvnia currency has plunged more than 20 percent in the past week and was trading on Wednesday at around 9.5/$. It is worth about half its value from last September, weakened by global risk aversion, a lack of confidence in the currency and a drop in exports which bring dollars into the market.

* In mid-2008, the hryvnia had strengthened as far as 4.5/$, after the central bank abandoned a policy of keeping it in a corridor of 5.00-5.06 per dollar, within a 4.95-5.25 band.

* The central bank has scrapped a trading band and repeatedly devalued its official rate despite spending $7.7 billion on propping up the currency between September-November.

FINANCES

* Ukraine has received a $4.5 billion tranche from an IMF loan which it secured at the beginning of November. The loan came on condition of fiscal prudence, recapitalisation of banks and a more liberal exchange rate mechanism.

* Analysts say the funds should be used as a bridge loan for Ukraine's government, which has been unable to issue Eurobonds this year, and to recapitalise banks. They worry, however, that the funds will be spent on just supporting the hryvnia.

* Foreign exchange reserves have risen slightly to $32.8 billion against $32.7 billion at the end of November, thanks to the rise of the euro against the dollar.

* The current account deficit was running at $10.5 billion, or 6.5 percent of GDP, in the first 10 months of this year. Analysts see the full-year deficit at between $10-14 billion but diverge on next year's forecast, citing between $3-$20 billion due to uncertainties over gas prices and the hryvnia's rate.

* Prices and demand for steel exports have dropped, while Russia's Gazprom has suggested next year's price for gas imports could soar to $400 per 1,000 cubic metres from $179.50 now.

CURRENCY RISKS

* The central bank risks whittling away its reserves, and encouraging imports and further widening the trade gap, if it supports the hryvnia. Letting it float freely would introduce uncertainty and speculation, removing an important anchor for domestic and foreign businesses in the export-driven economy. * Many people hold debt in foreign currency and are having increasing difficulties paying it off as the hryvnia weakens. A presidential aide this week said consumers could default on 60 percent of their debt obligations.

* Consumers are extremely sensitive to currency movements -- they lost savings when the Soviet Union collapsed and again through hyperinflation and a currency crisis in the 1990s that more than halved the hryvnia's value to about 4/$ and beyond.

* Ukraine was forced to restructure its debts in 2000 and made the final payments just last year. Credit default swaps -- a tradeable instrument that measures risks of debt default -- have consistently been some of the highest for emerging markets.

FOREIGN DEBT

* Ukraine's foreign debt totalled just over $100 billion as of July 1, of which about $15 billion was government debt.

* A central bank official has said companies and banks must pay off $5 billion in debts by the end of this year and another $30 billion next year.

* Analysts estimate Ukraine's 2009 external financing requirement to be $55-66 billion, of which $32-40 billion is in the private sector. Foreign banks own 40-42 percent of total banking assets and 25 percent of short-term banking debt is owed to parent banks. (Compiled by Sabina Zawadzki; Editing by Ron Askew)

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