FACTBOX-How to invest in gold and key price drivers=2

Published 10/05/2010, 07:56 AM
Updated 10/05/2010, 08:00 AM
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OIL PRICES

Gold has historically had a correlation with crude oil prices, because the metal can be used as a hedge against oil-led inflation. Strength in crude prices can also boost interest in commodities as an asset class. More recently this correlation has weakened, with gold prices continuing to rise in the past two years while oil prices retreated from record peaks.

FISCAL AND POLITICAL TENSIONS

The precious metal is widely considered a "safe haven", bought during uncertain times in a flight to quality.

Financial market uncertainty, as seen this year in the case of burgeoning debt problems for Greece and other euro zone countries, tends to boost inflows to gold.

Major geopolitical events including bomb blasts, terror attacks and assassinations can also induce price rises.

CENTRAL BANK GOLD RESERVES

Central banks hold gold as part of their reserves. Buying or selling of the metal by the banks can influence prices.

On Aug. 7, 2009, a group of 19 European central banks agreed to renew a pact to limit gold sales, originally signed in 1999 and renewed for a further five years in 2004.

Annual sales under the pact are limited to 400 tonnes, down from 500 tonnes in the second agreement, which expired in late September 2009. Sales under the new pact have been low, however.

More recently, central banks, chiefly in Asia, have shown a tendency to add to their gold reserves, with Thailand and Bangladesh some of the most recent countries to purchase bullion. This has also provided a major support to prices.

HEDGING

At the beginning of the 21st century, when gold prices were languishing around $300 an ounce, gold producers sold a part of their expected output with a promise to deliver the metal at a future date.

But when prices started rising, they suffered losses and there was a move to buy back their hedging positions to fully gain from higher market prices, a practice known as de-hedging.

Significant producer de-hedging can boost market sentiment and support gold prices. However, the rate of de-hedging has slowed markedly in recent years as the outstanding global hedge book has shrunk.

The world's biggest gold miner, Barrick Gold, cut its gold hedges by about 3 million ounces to eliminate its entire hedge-book in the fourth quarter of last year. AngloGold Ashanti, also a major producer, said in September it plans to close its hedge-book by early next year.

SUPPLY/DEMAND

Supply and demand fundamentals generally do not play as big a role in determining gold prices as those of other commodities because of huge above-ground stocks, now estimated at around 160,000 tonnes -- more than 60 times annual mine production.

Gold is not consumed in the same way as copper or oil.

Peak buying seasons in major consuming countries such as India and China exert some influence on the market, but other factors such as the dollar and financial risk carry more weight.

(Compiled by Atul Prakash and Jan Harvey; editing by Jane Baird)

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