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FACTBOX-Gulf economies to slow in '09 amid global turmoil

Published 12/21/2008, 04:31 AM
Updated 12/21/2008, 04:35 AM

Dec 21 (Reuters) - Following is a poll of 11 economists' forecasts of growth in real and nominal gross domestic product for six Gulf Arab countries for 2008 and 2009. Forecasts were based on a median price for U.S. oil of $100 a barrel this year and $60 a barrel in 2009.

For a related story, click on [ID:nLK167683] SAUDI ARABIA

Real GDP (%) Nominal GDP ($ bln)

2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 BNP Paribas 3.4 4.1 2.5 382.0 496.0 430.0 Citigroup 3.4 5.8 0.3 n/a n/a n/a EFG-Hermes 3.4 6.2 2.4 381.5 480.5 458.7 Economist Intelligence Unit 3.4 6.0 3.0 382.0 416.0 319.0 ING bank 3.4 4.3 5.1 381.0 474.0 417.0 Jadwa Investment 3.4 5.7 1.5 381.5 498.0 411.4 Merrill Lynch 3.4 4.9 2.9 381.7 461.7 433.3 Natl Bank of Abu Dhabi 3.4 4.5 2.4 381.5 479.9 391.7 SABB bank 3.4 4.9 1.7 381.5 503.8 405.1 Samba Financial Group 3.4 5.0 0.0 379.0 490.0 386.0 Standard Chartered Bank 3.9 2.7 2.0 n/a n/a n/a Average 3.4 4.9 2.2 381.4 477.8 405.8 Median 3.4 4.9 2.4 381.5 480.5 411.4 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

Real GDP (%) Nominal GDP ($ bln)

2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 BNP Paribas 6.1 5.8 3.0 201.0 258.0 230.0 Citigroup 5.2 7.7 2.3 n/a n/a n/a EFG-Hermes 5.2 7.5 3.1 198.9 259.1 242.1 Economist Intelligence Unit 7.6 7.7 1.5 199.0 222.0 207.0 ING bank 7.4 6.3 7.8 199.0 252.0 251.0 Jadwa Investment 6.3 6.8 2.1 200.5 258.0 242.6 Merrill Lynch 7.4 6.8 3.5 198.7 242.1 237.4 Natl Bank of Abu Dhabi 5.2 6.1 2.1 198.8 259.7 229.6 Samba Financial Group 6.1 7.2 2.7 200.0 273.0 230.0 Standard Chartered Bank 5.2 4.8 2.7 n/a n/a n/a Average 6.2 6.7 3.1 199.5 253.0 233.7 Median 6.1 6.8 2.7 199.0 258.0 233.7 KUWAIT

Real GDP (%) Nominal GDP ($ bln)

2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 BNP Paribas 4.8 4.5 2.2 112.0 153.0 135.0 Citigroup 4.9 5.6 1.4 n/a n/a n/a EFG-Hermes 4.4 5.7 3.1 112.1 155.4 139.8 Economist Intelligence Unit 4.7 8.1 4.5 112.0 150.0 135.0 ING bank 3.6 3.9 4.5 112.0 148.0 122.0 Jadwa Investment 3.9 5.3 2.0 112.0 153.7 131.8 Merrill Lynch 4.5 5.6 2.8 112.0 136.3 121.1 Natl Bank of Abu Dhabi 3.8 5.9 1.2 112.0 160.0 131.5 Natl Bank of Kuwait n/a 4.0 -3.3 112.0 146.0 102.0 Standard Chartered Bank 4.7 4.0 3.0 n/a n/a n/a Average 4.4 5.3 2.1 112.0 150.3 127.3 Median 4.5 5.5 2.5 112.0 151.5 131.7 QATAR

Real GDP (%) Nominal GDP ($ bln)

2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 BNP Paribas 12.5 13.5 11.0 68.0 85.0 80.0 Citigroup 9.1 8.1 2.8 n/a n/a n/a EFG-Hermes 8.5 12.7 10.4 71.0 116.9 138.2 Economist Intelligence Unit 11.5 11.2 13.7 71.0 88.0 87.0 ING bank 7.5 7.2 8.8 71.0 95.0 89.0 Jadwa Investment 13.9 12.5 9.4 68.0 88.7 91.6 Merrill Lynch 12.5 14.5 9.5 71.0 98.7 87.0 Natl Bank of Abu Dhabi 14.4 12.6 8.8 71.0 103.0 84.1 Samba Financial Group 13.9 19.6 10.3 68.0 90.0 97.0 Standard Chartered Bank 11.0 7.0 4.5 n/a n/a n/a Average 11.5 11.9 8.9 69.9 95.7 94.2 Median 12.0 12.6 9.5 71.0 92.5 88.0 OMAN

Real GDP (%) Nominal GDP ($ bln)

2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 BNP Paribas 6.9 6.9 5.3 40.0 51.0 48.0 EFG-Hermes 5.5 6.4 4.2 40.3 56.2 52.1 Economist Intelligence Unit 5.8 6.4 5.1 37.0 47.0 48.0 ING bank 5.5 7.4 5.5 40.0 54.0 53.0 Jadwa Investment 6.9 6.3 4.2 40.3 51.7 48.6 Merrill Lynch 6.5 6.4 3.3 40.3 49.5 49.7 Natl Bank of Abu Dhabi 4.5 5.3 3.4 40.4 50.4 42.9 Standard Chartered Bank 6.4 4.0 2.5 n/a n/a n/a Average 6.0 6.1 4.2 39.8 51.4 48.9 Median 6.1 6.4 4.2 40.3 51.0 48.6 BAHRAIN

Real GDP (%) Nominal GDP ($ bln)

2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 BNP Paribas 6.6 5.3 4.0 18.0 22.0 22.0 EFG-Hermes 6.2 6.5 5.0 17.5 20.9 21.5 Economist Intelligence Unit 8.1 6.1 2.7 16.0 19.0 18.0 ING bank 8.1 5.9 5.2 18.4 22.3 22.7 Jadwa Investment 6.6 6.1 3.4 18.0 21.2 20.3 Merrill Lynch 8.1 5.4 3.4 17.5 20.0 20.6 Natl Bank of Abu Dhabi 8.1 6.7 3.6 18.4 22.0 21.1 Standard Chartered Bank 6.8 4.5 3.5 n/a n/a n/a Average 7.3 5.8 3.8 17.7 21.1 20.9 Median 7.5 6.0 3.5 18.0 21.2 21.1

(Compiled by Daliah Merzaban; Editing by Amran Abocar)

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