FRANKFURT, Feb 27 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates to an all-time low of 1.5 percent at its meeting next Thursday.
A Reuters poll published on Wednesday showed 76 out of 78 economists surveyed expect the ECB to reduce rates by another 50 basis points, adding to the 225 basis points worth of cuts since October [ECB/INT].
Below are some of the factors the ECB will take into account at its March 5 meeting.
GROWTH
- The euro zone suffered its deepest contraction on record in the last quarter of 2008. Official figures showed GDP shrank 1.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, worse than the 1.3 percent decline analysts had been expecting.
- Top economies of Germany, France and Italy all fared badly. Germany shrank by a bigger-than-expected 2.1 percent, its worst quarterly performance since reunification in 1990.
- French GDP fell 1.2 percent, its fastest decline in 34 years, while Italy contracted by 1.8 percent, the biggest drop since records began in 1980.
- ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark said he expects the new set of ECB staff forecasts, due out next week, to be in line with the latest IMF forecasts which see a 2 percent contraction in the euro zone economy this year.
- Economic morale plumbed new record depths in February. The European Commission's sentiment indicator dropped to 65.4 from 67.2 in January, suggesting another sharp fall in GDP is on the cards in Q1.
- Services and manufacturing activity in the 16-nation bloc contracted at the fastest pace in at least 11 years in February according to closely-watched Purchasing Managers Index data.
- French business morale dropped to a record low in February and Italian industrial orders fell for a fifth straight month.
- Germany's GfK's forward-looking gauge of sentiment showed consumer morale should improve in March despite concerns about the economy, while Ifo numbers showed corporate sentiment deteriorated only slightly in February.
- The euro zone had a much smaller than expected trade gap in December as imports shrank more quickly than exports, pointing to falling domestic demand. Exports dropped 2 percent year-on-year compared to a steep 10 percent slide in November.
- Unemployment rose to 8.2 percent in January from 8.0 percent of the workforce in December.
INFLATION
- Inflation fell to 1.1 percent in January, almost half the ECB's target level of just under 2 percent. It is the lowest rate in almost 10 years.
- Benchmark U.S. oil prices
- Germany's national consumer prices index (CPI) showed annual inflation accelerated to 1.0 percent in February from 0.9 percent in January.
- The EU Commission has forecast euro-zone annual inflation of 1.0 percent on average in 2009 and 1.8 percent 2010.
- Two-year breakeven inflation rates -- the difference
between yields on inflation-protected bonds and conventional
bonds -- remain very low and suggest inflation rates below 1/2
percent 2 years out
- Money supply growth (M3), which the ECB sees as a leading indicator of price pressures, slowed in January to 5.9 percent from 7.5 percent in December. Growth of loans to the private sector in the euro zone fell to 5.0 percent year-on-year.
MARKETS
- European stocks <.FTEU3> hit a six-year low this week Reuters data showed and down 13.6 percent since the start of the year.
- The euro
- On the ECB's preferred trade-weighted basis, the euro has
strengthened 1.5 percent
- Money market rates continue to ease given the 225 basis
points of rate cuts and generous liquidity supplies from the
ECB. Benchmark 3-month Euribor
- The spread over Eurepo
Feb. 27 Feb ECB meet Jan ECB meet
Brent Crude Oil (Europe close) (pct chg) (pct chg)
front month $46.51 0.107 4.072
Euro/Dollar $1.274 -0.32 -3.13
DJ Euro Stoxx index 187.4 -11.2 -14.4
FTSE Eurotop 300 732.4 -9.62 -8.01
(bps chg) (bps chg)
3-mo Euribor 1.825 -21.4 -68.5
EU 2-yr yield 1.348 -10.3 -16.5
Bund (10-yr) yield 3.132 -23.2 22.6
(Reporting by Marc Jones and Krista Hughes)