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Europeans plan for frugal Xmas, tough 2009-Deloitte

Published 11/11/2008, 07:01 PM
Updated 11/11/2008, 07:04 PM

* 40 pct of Europeans plan to limit Christmas spending

* 60 pct expect less purchasing power in 2009

* Consumers in eastern Europe more upbeat than in the west

LONDON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Europeans will limit spending on Christmas as they brace for a tough 2009, though shoppers in eastern countries are more optimistic than those in the west, surveys by business consultancy Deloitte showed on Wednesday.

Some 40 percent of Europeans plan to limit their end-of-year spending on gifts, while half of them will budget their festive shopping this year, up from a third in 2007, Deloitte said.

Some 60 percent of those surveyed also anticipate lower purchasing power next year.

"2008 can be expected to mark a significant change in end-of-year spending in Europe," Deloitte said in a statement.

"Retailers can expect lower sales levels than in recent years."

Shoppers across Europe are cutting back following big rises in food and fuel costs and after a turmoil in financial markets sparked fears of a global recession. However, there are variations from country to country.

In Britain Deloitte said shoppers planned to spend an average of 655 pounds ($1,018) on gifts, socialising and food and drink this Christmas, down 7 percent on last year and the first fall for at least a decade.

But the results were heavily affected by 24 percent of respondents, mostly middle-aged homeowners facing the biggest worries about rising bills and falling house prices, who said they would cut back.

Some 57 percent of UK consumers said they planned to spend the same this Christmas as last year, while 19 percent said they would spend more.

Helped by last week's bigger than expected 1.5 percentage point cut in Bank of England's base rate, Deloitte forecast that overall sales would be broadly flat, or perhaps down slightly, in the UK.

But Tarlok Teji, head of retail at Deloitte, said conditions were likely to get tougher for UK retailers in early 2009.

"Come February onwards, consumers will close their wallets and purses and retailers cash flows will start to suffer," he said in a telephone interview.

"We would expect to see casualties ... I think there's going to be quite a shake-up," he said, adding that store groups selling goods linked to the home and mid-market clothing retailers were the most likely to suffer.

In eastern Europe consumers are more upbeat, with 66 percent saying they remain optimistic about economic prospects.

Across the continent shoppers are expected to focus Christmas shopping on bargains and promotions, which could favour supermarket groups over department stores, Deloitte said.

It also saw a trend towards "in-tertainment," with consumers spending more time at home. This could boost demand for everything from basic cooking ingredients to karaoke and computer games, it said.

Deloitte also noted a growing proportion of Europeans hoping their Christmas present would be cash. ($1=.6436 pounds) (Reporting by Mark Potter; Editing by Greg Mahlich)

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