* Fixed-income continues buoyant start to year
* Equity, debt issuance also strong, high margins help
* Credit Suisse, Barclays, Deutsche Bank seen Europe winners
* Could accelerate return of big bonuses for top dealmakers
By Steve Slater
LONDON, June 24 (Reuters) - Europe's investment banks are expected to deliver surprisingly buoyant second-quarter profits as near-record fixed-income revenues were accompanied by high margins and strong debt and equity issuance, analysts said.
Strong first-half capital markets revenues will provide relief for banks facing hefty losses from retail and corporate loans as the recession bites.
It is also likely to accelerate the return of big bonuses for leading dealmakers, as banks seek to keep and attract top talent to benefit from their ability to bring in fees.
Credit Suisse, Barclays, BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank are likely to join U.S. rivals Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan in getting a double boost from good conditions and higher market share.
"It's probably turned out to be a better quarter than most people had dared believe, and (there's been) some broadening of the contributions," said David Williams, analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton.
Second-quarter equity capital markets revenues and first-half debt capital markets fees are expected to be near record levels, underpinning a strong bounce back in total investment bank income from a trough in the second half of last year following the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
But low loan and M&A fee income will keep total investment banking income still well down from levels seen in 2006 and 2007, and a return to those heady days is seen as unlikely before 2012.
Other analysts agreed that a strong first quarter had been maintained in the second quarter -- albeit without January's exceptional performance -- despite a tough macroeconomic backdrop.
Conditions for fixed income, currency and commodities (FICC) trading in the first half were "as close to perfect as could reasonably be expected", analysts at Credit Suisse said.
High debt and equity issuance and fees and a pick-up in equity and equity derivatives trading all more than compensated for still sluggish merger and acquisition advisory work.
Margins have remained high, defying expectations they would drop sharply from the first quarter, while the retreat by several major players has helped their rivals.
MARGINS STRONG
Less competition means more business at higher margins for the top banks.
The collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman and troubles at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, UBS and elsewhere have left rivals trying to grab a bigger piece of the pie.
Goldman, JPMorgan, BarCap, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse had a 41 percent share of capital market and investment banking revenues in the first quarter, up from 25 percent in 2006, BarCap Chief Executive Bob Diamond said last week.
On the same day Brady Dougan, Credit Suisse CEO, told analysts that margins will stay higher for longer and there will be only a gradual tightening of fixed-income spreads.
Fees for most investment banking products are at least 50 percent higher and in some areas multiples of the year-ago margin, bankers estimate.
The strong second quarter has lifted expectations that fees will hold up into next year.
Andrew Coombs, analyst at Citi, on Wednesday lifted his 2010 earnings forecasts for Europe's top investment banks, raising his Deutsche Bank estimate by 30 percent.
"Earnings momentum should be positive through Q2 reporting, although price performance may be more muted post the strong bounce and heading into the seasonally quieter summer months," Coombs said in a note.
Asia-focused Standard Chartered is expected to show strong trading for its wholesale arm when it issues a trading update on Thursday, but most European banks are not due to show their hand until results in late July and early August.
(Editing by Erica Billingham)