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Europe office mkt revival seen in 2011-report

Published 04/28/2009, 08:46 AM
Updated 04/28/2009, 09:32 AM

* Office market malaise spreads from UK to rest of Europe

* Barcelona office market rated zero

* Paris La Defense rated Europe's most improved office mkt

LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - European office property markets are unlikely to see any meaningful recovery until 2011 at the earliest, as faltering economies squeeze occupier demand, a report from Moody's Investors Service showed.

In its quarterly Red-Yellow-Green report, Moody's said some continental European office markets had shown clear signs of weakening in the second half of 2008, mirroring declines in projected space take-up and increased vacancy rates first seen in Britain some time earlier.

The analysis, which tracks office markets supporting commercial mortgage-backed securities, covers 24 major European office markets, including London, Paris, Barcelona and Munich.

Depending on the degree of short-term stress on rental markets, each city is rated on a scale of zero (weak) to 100 (strong). Scores of 0-33 are identified as red, 34-66 as yellow, and 67-100 as green.

"Between year-end 2007 and year-end 2008, the weighted average composite score for the European office markets covered by Moody's analysis decreased to 39 from 61 ... This score indicates an overall weak yellow market ," Moody's analyst Jeroen Heijdeman said.

Moody's has classified 13 of the 24 cities as red markets, eight as yellow markets and three as green markets. Over the period covered, only three markets showed positive changes in their overall scores, while in 20 markets the market situation deteriorated and one market score remained stable.

With the exception of Manchester, all UK markets showed further signs of deterioration and are all classified as red markets.

In Spain, Madrid declined from a green to a red score, mainly as result of reduced demand, while Barcelona reached the bottom score of zero.

The German office occupational markets showed the first clear signs of decline at year-end 2008, with all markets showing declining scores.

Dusseldorf and Frankfurt markets were reclassified from yellow to red markets, while Munich and Berlin changed from a green markets to yellow.

The most improved occupational market conditions over the 12-month period were observed in Paris La Defense, which now has the highest score of any market mainly due the slight fall in expected completions and the low 3 percent vacancy level. (Reporting by Sinead Cruise; Editing by Andrew Macdonald) (See www.reutersrealestate.com for the global service for real estate professionals from Reuters)

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