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Euro zone services economy leaps towards recovery

Published 09/03/2009, 04:00 AM
Updated 09/03/2009, 04:03 AM

* Euro zone services economy just shy of recovery

* Germany back to growth territory; Spain, Italy lag

* Employment still at low levels

By Nigel Davies

LONDON, Sept 3 (Reuters) - The euro zone services economy jumped back almost to recovery in August, with Germany powering back to growth and France just an inch away too, a survey showed on Thursday.

The data should reassure the European Central Bank before it meets on Thursday that the worst of a severe recession is over even if a return to growth may be slow while unemployment remains high. It is widely expected to leave rates on hold at a record low of 1.0 percent.

Markit's Eurozone Flash Services Purchasing Managers Index of around 2,000 companies rose to 49.9 in August, a big leap from 45.7 in July, and even higher than the 49.5 recorded for the flash.

It is also just shy of the 50.0 mark that divides growth from contraction, suggesting that if the trend continues the euro zone economy will return to growth in the current quarter.

Last quarter the euro zone economy sunk by 0.1 percent, but by a record 2.5 percent in the first.

"Following on from the negligible contraction signalled for official GDP in Q2, the PMI suggests that the euro zone may well come out of recession in the third quarter," said Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit.

Yet data also showed a divergence among the euro zone's four largest economies. Germany's services PMI jumped to its highest since May last year in August, surging to 53.8 from 48.1.

France too closed in on the recovery level at 49.3, up from 45.5 the previous month. But both Italy and Spain both lagged some way off the 50.0 mark despite a noticeable improvement in a slowdown in both countries.

A revision in the main euro zone services PMI from the flash was partly the result of a change in the incoming new business index, which rose to 48.6 in August, up from 44.2 in July, and up from the 48.2 flash.

The stronger services PMI, coupled with an improved outlook in the euro zone's factories sector, took the Composite index of the two to its best level since last May, revised up to 50.4 from 47.0 in July and the 50.0 flash.

JOB LOSSES TO HINDER RECOVERY?

The euro zone economy is still shedding jobs at a fast rate, but the survey showed a slowdown in that pace in August.

The Composite employment index of both manufacturing and services rose to 46.0 in August from 42.7 in July, a slight revision up from 45.8 at the time of the flash.

Yet that still confirmed that euro zone companies have been shedding jobs for 14 straight months. Official euro zone unemployment rose to 9.5 percent in July, leaving the number of jobless in the euro zone at just over 15 million.

And some economists warn that if demand cannot pick up then a recovery may well be slow or even stutter.

"Sales are still dependent on heavy price discounting and accommodative monetary and fiscal stimuli," said Dobson. He warned against an early exit from ultra loose policies set up by governments and the ECB.

(Reporting by Nigel Davies; Editing by Victoria Main)

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