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Euro zone leading index points to deeper recession

Published 01/28/2009, 04:03 AM
Updated 01/28/2009, 04:08 AM

BRUSSELS, Jan 28 (Reuters) - The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for the euro zone fell 0.9 percent in December to 93.3 points after declines in November and October, pointing to a deepening recession, the research group said on Wednesday.

The index "indicates that there is no improvement in sight", said Jean-Claude Manini, the Conference Board's senior economist for Europe.

This is the first release of the leading index for the euro zone. The Conference Board also publishes such indices for the United States, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Mexico, Britain, Germany, France and Spain.

"The effects of an expansionary policy mix may kick in later this year, and lead to some recovery in output, but employment growth will remain sluggish," he said.

"While the worst of the downturn may be behind us, the recession will likely deepen through at least the first half of 2009."

The leading index, which indicates economic development up to six months ahead, aggregates eight economic indicators that measure activity in the euro area as a whole and has been plotted back to 1987.

The index components are the European Commission's economic sentiment index, Eurostat's index of residential building permits granted and index of capital goods new orders, and the Dow Jones EURO STOXX Index.

It also includes the European Central Bank's money supply data and interest rate spreads as well as the euro zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index from Markit Economics and its euro zone Service Sector Future Business Activity Expectations Index. (Reporting by Jan Strupczewski, editing by Dale Hudson)

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