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Euro zone growth slow and steady as ECB holds on-poll

Published 12/15/2010, 09:30 AM
Updated 12/15/2010, 09:32 AM

* Euro zone growth seen slow and steady

* ECB to hold rates at 1.0 percent until at least early 2012

* Inflation seen at 1.7 percent in 2011, 1.8 percent in 2012

By Jonathan Cable

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Euro zone economic growth will be slow and steady over the coming two years and a subdued outlook for inflation will give the European Central Bank scant reason to shift rates from record lows, a Reuters poll showed.

Forecasts in the poll of over 50 analysts for economic growth remained virtually unchanged from last month's survey and the 16-nation bloc is seen growing between 0.3 and 0.5 percent per quarter through to the end of 2012.

But the figures mask a growing divergence amongst member countries, with Germany, Europe's largest economy, powering ahead of smaller members like Ireland, and even Spain.

The bloc escaped from its deepest recession in post-war history in the third quarter of last year after the ECB pumped billions of euros into the economy through unlimited funding at money market operations and rock-bottom interest rates.

The Reuters poll showed growth this year will average 1.7 percent but slow to 1.5 percent in 2011, revised up from 1.4 percent in last month's poll.

Growth will then pick up to 1.8 percent in 2012, slightly faster than the 1.7 percent predicted last month.

"While the risk of a double dip for the euro zone as a whole has receded, recessionary conditions are likely to persist in those economies suffering the after-effects of the excesses of the pre-crisis era," said Ken Wattret at BNP Paribas.

"Conditions in the core countries, particularly Germany, are very different."

Ireland agreed an 85 billion euro bailout deal from the European Union and International Monetary Fund in November, months after Greece obtained a similar rescue package. A Reuters poll taken late last month suggested Portugal may be forced to follow suit.

The EU will also be compelled to increase the size of its 440 billion euro rescue fund next year, according to three-quarters of analysts surveyed. The median forecast was for a need to raise EU funds available to 700 billion.

HOLD ON RATES

To sustain the modest growth and avoid a double-dip from the tough austerity measures introduced in member countries the ECB will keep interest rates at their record low of 1.0 percent through to early 2012, the poll showed. In last month's poll, the consensus was for a rate rise in the final months of next year.

The poll predicted rates will rise in the first three months of 2012 to 1.25 percent and then by 25 basis points every quarter to round off the year at 2.0 percent.

Inflation, which the central bank aims to keep just below 2.0 percent, is seen averaging 1.6 percent this year, 1.7 percent next year and 1.8 percent in 2012. All three forecasts have been revised up by 0.1 percentage points from last month.

That is the highest 2011 consensus inflation expectation since Reuters began polling on it in January.

Data due on Thursday are expected to confirm prices rose 1.9 percent last month, in line with October.

"It is definitely too early to talk of inflationary tensions, but it still illustrates the schizophrenic situation the ECB is now facing when setting monetary policy," said Peter Vanden Houte at ING. (Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit, analysis by Ruby Cherian, editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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