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POLL-Economists give Bernanke good mark on handling crisis

Published 12/17/2008, 07:15 AM
Updated 12/17/2008, 07:20 AM
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* Fed's Bernanke's handling of financial crisis seen superior to that of ECB's Trichet, BoE's King

* Financial crisis seen lasting at least another 6-12 months

* 58 of 69 economists say worst of market volatility over

* U.S. automaker rescue package not seen essential

By Nigel Davies

LONDON, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has negotiated the most successful route among major central bankers through a financial crisis that is set to linger well into next year, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

The U.S. Fed chief was the first to recognise the scale of the crisis that started in August 2007 that spread from houses to banks to businesses and blew into the wider economy and opted to begin cutting the federal funds rate in September.

The Fed cut rates on Tuesday by more than expected to an historic low -- a band between zero and 0.25 percent -- and stressed it would employ all available tools to see off a recession.

The Fed's relatively quick policy action stood in contrast to other central banks that only began to make sharp rate cuts late this year after Lehman Brothers was taken off the map, economists said.

But while the worst financial crisis in more than 80 years is forecast to rumble on at least through the first half of 2009, the vast majority of analysts polled, 58 of 69, said the worst of market volatility was over.

"Bernanke was early in recognizing the potential impacts on the economy from the housing and credit crisis which has unfolded," said Scott Anderson at Wells Fargo.

"The problem is the crisis even swamped what the Fed thought were dramatic monetary policy moves," he added.

In a poll of over 70 economists in the U.S. and Europe taken Dec. 12-16 before the Fed cut rates, Bernanke emerged with a score of 7 out of 10 for his handling of the crisis since last year, his star rising since he was given just a passing grade for his work in a February poll.

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King was rated 6 out of 10 for his handling of the financial crunch. But the lowest score was given to once highly praised European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, who notched only a 5 out of 10 score.

Bernanke was criticised by some economists though for his support of Treasury Secretary's Hank Paulson's TARP programme and failure to stop the fall of Lehman.

TRICHET UNDER FIRE

The most damning criticism in the poll was reserved for Trichet, particularly after the ECB hiked rates in July only to reverse the decision three months later when the financial crisis swung into a much uglier phase.

"At every stage the ECB has been a day late and a euro short," said Ethan Harris at Barclays Capital, formerly chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers.

"The low point was when they ignored the developing credit crunch and tightened in response to a temporary rise in oil prices."

But some economists were at pains to highlight the different approach taken by central banks. The ECB was praised for its swift response in trying to unblock money markets.

The central bank consistently drew a distinction between its monetary policy and measures to alleviate bunged up markets, quickly offering banks all the cash they need for six months at fixed rates and accepting a wide range of assets in exchange for central bank funds.

AUTOMAKER BAILOUT NOT ESSENTIAL

Economists were relatively sure that the crisis is not going to pass soon, though it may not require a bailout of the U.S. automaker industry for it to happen.

The majority in the poll said it would last another 6-12 months, the same answer given in September, showing the crisis is now rumbling on much longer than anticipated.

A sizeable minority, 25, said the crisis would last one to two years or more, with most believing the effects and consequences will be felt for even longer.

But they were not convinced it will take the U.S. government to renegotiate a bailout package for the country's three main automakers before a recovery could take place.

Fifty of 73 said it was not essential for a recovery.

"No package would deepen the recession but a recovery would still eventually take place, just from a weaker starting point. A bailout would hasten the recovery," said Benjamin Reitzes at BMO Capital Markets. (Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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