The Federal Open Market Committee finally starts its awaited two day meeting, the final decision will be released tomorrow putting an end to a great percentage of speculation and leaving the projections over the extent of support a new round of quantitative easing will provide.
We surely were surprised from the Pacific today as well; where following China’s support the surprise was with an unexpected rate increase from the RBA taking rates by a quarter percentage point to 4.75%. India also followed suit and the Reserve Bank of India increased the repurchase rate by the same amount to 5.25%.
This divergence in the monetary stance among nations is a key testament to ongoing market turbulence! The inflationary pressures are keenly felt in the Pacific and some nations might indeed debate that the excessive monetary easing from industrial nations is pouring inflows into other economies which can be surely the case for China and India, while for Australia it is merely similar with increased inflows into its mining sector and the nation’s booming stature as a commodity economy, siding to that of Canada!
Surely the unexpected rate increase did imprint the reaction in the market, where aussie rallied towards parity with the US dollar; aussie hit the strongest today versus the dollar at 1.0011 rising off early opening lows of 0.9863 and currently hovering high around 0.9977.
The market is tensed and jittered; with a wide range of variables pending for release this week, the wait and see approach is only doing well to the volatility and exasperating market movements! The dollar is undoubtedly under pressure, and though one would think the lack of fundamentals from the US today and the anticipation for the feds decision is the key element, you are surely mistaken.
We can not take the midterm elections lightly, maybe we shunned the election echoes and noise on the market, yet now is the moment of truth and the shifting in the power balance between the White House and the Congress will surely be a critical aspect for economic policies to come, especially if Republicans as widely expected emerge with the majority of seats!
The ballot jitters and surely FOMC fears too are pressuring the dollar lower today. The dollar index is trading softly over daily basis recording the low of 76.85 after setting the high in early trading hours at 77.29.
As for the euro, it also is supported by its domestic performance. The upside revision to manufacturing activity was the sequel to the upbeat figures from China to the US yesterday. The sector’s expansion accelerated in Germany which led the increase in aggregate area’s performance supporting the euro to retain its gains. The euro versus the dollar traded also bullishly till now and into the European session the pair so far recorded a high of 1.3989 and still shy off strong resistance areas ahead around 1.4000-10 levels which is standing against strong extension of the bullish wave for now.
Sterling on the other hand was dismayed by abysmal construction sector figures. Ironically, the sector was a main pillar in supporting growth in the third quarter where the economy unexpectedly expanded by 0.8% and with the downbeat figures into the fourth quarter investors once again woke up on the pessimistic side and expect further weakness from UK in the coming period. Sterling was pressured by the downbeat figures and fell versus the dollar to record the low of 1.5960 after it failed to settle above 1.6075 areas where it recorded its high levels.
The US session is as we said fundamental free today which leaves the volatility on the expense of FOMC speculation and election results anticipation as equities are expected to continue fluctuating affecting the sentiment further.