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FOREX-Pound dips, Aussie sheds post rate-rise gains

Published 03/02/2010, 12:54 AM
Updated 03/02/2010, 12:56 AM

* Political uncertainty seen continuing to weigh on sterling

* RBA raises rates by 25 bps to 4.0 pct

* Euro still hobbled by uncertainty over Greece bailout

By Masayuki Kitano

TOKYO, March 2 (Reuters) - Sterling fell on Tuesday, staying under pressure after hitting a 10-month low the previous day, while the Australian dollar slipped, giving back earlier gains made after an interest rate rise by Australia's central bank.

The Aussie had initially climbed after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.0 percent and flagged further hikes ahead.

"There is no reason to be surprised that they raised interest rates at this point," said Kimihiko Tomita, head of foreign exchange at State Street Global Markets in Tokyo.

"The question is how much further the Australian dollar should be bought from here," Tomita continued, adding that State Street's calculations taking into account factors such as purchasing power parity suggested that the Australian dollar was overvalued.

There had been some uncertainty about whether the RBA would raise interest rates on Tuesday because many investors were burnt after it stunned markets by skipping a hike at its February meeting.

But given that Australian economic data since then had been solid overall, especially jobs numbers that showed a surge in Australian employment in January, the latest rate rise was not a big surprise, Tomita said.

The Australian dollar advanced as high as $0.9035 after the RBA's rate rise but later gave up its gains and last stood at $0.8989, down 0.2 percent from late U.S. trading on Monday.

A sales trader at a U.S. bank said the Aussie ran into "buy-the-rumour, sell-the-fact" type of offers with market players trimming long positions in the Australian dollar.

EURO AND STERLING SLIP

The euro and sterling both edged lower, with the euro dipping 0.2 percent to $1.3539, slipping back towards a nine-month low of $1.3443 hit on trading platform EBS in February.

Sterling shed 0.4 percent to $1.4935.

On Monday, it slumped to a 10-month low of $1.4781, and although it later trimmed some losses, still finished the day down 1.7 percent for its biggest one-day percentage fall in more than four months.

The outlook for sterling and the euro is unlikely to improve immediately given the various factors working against them, said a trader for a European bank.

"Overall, there is still likely to be selling pressure against the European currencies," he said.

"One of the factors has to do with politics and that is not something that will disappear in a day or two, so sterling may remain under selling pressure."

Sterling took a dive on Monday, hurt by factors such as worries that a UK election due in months could give neither the opposition Conservatives nor the ruling Labour Party a parliamentary majority.

Such an outcome could hinder a new government from effectively dealing with bringing down the UK budget deficit.

Sterling has also been under pressure after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said recently that the central bank may still have to restart its asset-buying programme if the economic outlook worsens.

The euro's outlook will turn bearish on weekly Ichimoku charts if it closes the week below the bottom of the cloud, which now lies near $1.3600. That could open the way for a fall down towards $1.3300, where support lies on monthly Ichimoku charts.

The European Union urged Greece on Monday to agree additional austerity measures within days to tackle its fiscal crisis and promised to help Athens overcome its debt problems, while the office of Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou announced a cabinet meeting for Wednesday to "take decisions about the economy".

But market players still doubt whether euro zone countries such as Germany would agree to help Greece, and remain sceptical of Greece's commitment to fiscal consolidation, said Tomita at State Street Global Markets.

"It is a deep-seated problem," Tomita said.

"It is an example of how hard it can be to regain trust once you lose it," he said.

The dollar rose 0.2 percent against the yen to 89.33 yen. (Additional reporting by Satomi Noguchi; Editing by Chris Gallagher)

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