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EUR/USD surges as Greek bailout, Sept. rate hike become more likely

Published 08/10/2015, 05:18 PM
Updated 08/10/2015, 05:24 PM
The euro soared against the dollar on Monday, moving above 1.10
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Investing.com -- EUR/USD surged on Monday above 1.10, amid fresh indications that a comprehensive Greek bailout could be completed before the end of the month and that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates in September.

The currency pair wavered between 1.0925 and 1.1041 on Monday, before settling at 1.1020, up 0.0056 or 0.51%. The euro closed above 1.10 against its American counterpart for the first time in more than 10 sessions. After a recent surge, EUR/USD is now relatively flat over the last 30 days of trading down roughly by 0.13%.

EUR/USD likely gained support at 1.0874, the low from August 6 and was met with resistance at 1.1114, the high from July 31.

Following a weekend of productive talks in Athens, a spokesperson from the European Commission indicated that a deal on a bailout that could provide Greece with up to €86 billion in critical aid could be finalized by the end of August. Greece and its international creditors are working on finishing a deal by August 20 when Greece owes the European Central Bank a loan repayment of €3.5 billion. If a deal is not reached by next Thursday, the two sides could agree on additional bridge financing to enable Greece to make the payment on time.

Elsewhere, in a speech to the Atlanta Press Club on Monday Federal Reserve of Atlanta president Dennis Lockhart indicated that the Fed is close to raising interest rates as the economy continues to return to near normal levels. Lockhart's comments came three days after the U.S. Department of Labor released relatively solid jobs figures on Friday in its monthly national employment situation report.

During the month of July, the U.S. labor market added 215,000 non-farm payrolls, in line with consensus estimates of a 212,000 gain. The figure received a boost from a 60,000 gain in Trade & Transportation jobs, as well as a 40,000 increase in Professional & Business service positions. The Labor Department also upwardly revised non-farm payrolls for June by 8,000 to 231,000.

Earlier on Monday, Fed governor Stanley Fischer struck a more dovish tone telling Bloomberg TV that it is not a certainty that lift-off will occur in September. Fischer is widely considered the second-highest ranking official at the Fed behind chair Janet Yellen.

"The interesting situation in which we are is that employment has been rising pretty fast relative to previous performance and yet inflation is very low," Fischer told Bloomberg. "And the concern about the situation is not to move before we see inflation as well as employment returning to more normal levels."

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell more than 0.5% on Monday before closing at 97.21. Last week, the index soared to a four-month high above 98.40.

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