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EUR/USD leaps above 1.09, ahead of crucial U.S. February jobs report

Published 03/03/2016, 05:58 PM
Updated 03/03/2016, 06:05 PM
EUR/USD surged more than 0.80% on Thursday to close above 1.09
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Investing.com -- EUR/USD rose sharply leaping above 1.09, as investors reacted to a batch of soft U.S. economic data ahead of Friday's crucial U.S. jobs report.

The currency pair traded between 1.0851 and 1.0974, before settling at near session highs at 1.0956, up 0.0091 or 0.82% on the day. It halted an extended losing streak when the euro closed down against the dollar in 11 of the previous 14 sessions. During the skid, the euro plummeted more than 3.5% against the greenback.

EUR/USD likely gained support at 1.0538, the low from December 3 and was met with resistance at 1.1496, the high from Oct. 15.

The dollar fell substantially after Markit said its Purchasing Managers' Index for the U.S. services sector fell 0.5 to 49.7, the lowest reading since the shutdown of the federal government in 2013. The final reading for the month inched down by 0.1 from February's flash index of 49.8. Separately, the U.S. Commerce Department said factory orders for January increased by the most in seven months, rebounding from a dismal performance a month earlier. It came as durable goods orders surged 4.7%, offsetting energy driven declines in non-durables. The overall reading still fell short of analysts' expectations for 2.0% gains. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management reported that its Non-Manufacturing Index for February decreased by 0.1 to 53.4, slightly above forecasts of 53.2.

When the Labor Department releases its February jobs report on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report that nonfarm payrolls rose by 190,000 last month, following an increase of 151,000 a month earlier. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%, a month after tumbling to its lowest level in eight years. The Labor Force Participation Rate also ticked up 0.1 to 62.7%, as the struggling manufacturing industry added 29,000 positions, its best one-month performance since November, 2014.

Analysts will also a keep close eye on monthly wage gains after hourly workers saw their earnings surge by 0.5% in January, amid a wave of minimum wage hikes at numerous states throughout the country. Last month, hourly wages were expected to rise by 0.2%, according to consensus forecasts.

In advance of the release, the Labor Department said Thursday that new jobless claims rose slightly by 6,000 last week to 278,000. Analysts expected a decline of 2,000 to 270,000 following an increase of 10,000 a week earlier. The four-week average fell mildly to 270,250 from 272,000 for the week ending on February 20.

Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has constantly reiterated that the Fed will employ a data driven approach as it weighs the timing of its next interest rate hike. A robust jobs report could convince the Federal Open Market Committee to adjust its long-term economic projections when it meets next on March 15-16. On Thursday, Boston Fed president Rob Kaplan noted in a speech in Austin, Texas, that the Fed needs to remain patient when deciding whether to remove accommodative policies.

Any rate hikes by the FOMC are viewed as bullish for the dollar, as foreign investors pile into the greenback in order to capitalize on higher yields.

In Europe, Markit's Composite PMI in February fell 0.6 from the flash reading to 53, its lowest level in 13 months. The euro zone's top four economies, Germany, France, Spain and Italy, experienced slowdowns, led by France which fell considerably to 49.3. France PMI slipped below 50 for the first time in a year, providing indications that its economy is on the verge of contraction. The subdued economic data places added pressure on the European Central Bank to approve added stimulus measures at a closely-watched meeting next week.

Yields on the U.S. 10-Year fell one basis point to 1.83%, while yields on the Germany 10-Year plunged four basis points to 0.17%.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, plummeted more than 0.65% to an intraday low of 97.46 before closing slightly higher at 97.61.

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