Investing.com -- EUR/USD posted moderate gains on Monday halting a seven-day losing streak, as surprisingly weak consumer data, exacerbated fears that a potential U.S. recession could be looming in the near future.
The currency pair traded between 1.1154 and 1.1219 before settling at 1.1196, up 0.0030 or 0.27% on the session. Previously, the euro had fallen in seven consecutive sessions since reaching five-month highs against the dollar on March 17. More broadly, the euro is up more than 3% versus its American counterpart since the start of the year.
EUR/USD likely gained support at 1.0538, the low from December 3 and was met with resistance at 1.1496, the high from Oct. 15.
On Monday morning, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said personal income in February rose 0.2%, slightly above consensus estimates of a 0.1% increase from the previous month. It came one month after robust gains of 0.5% in January. More importantly, consumer spending in February inched up 0.1%, following sharp downward revisions from 0.5% to 0.1% a month earlier. Within the report, retail sales were revised downward to minus 0.4% for January, joining durable and non-durable in contraction territory.
In terms of inflation, the PCE Price Index fell 0.1% in February, in line with consensus estimates, one month after ticking up by 0.1% in January. On a yearly basis, PCE prices increased by 1.0%, after surging 1.3% during the first month of the year. The Core PCE Index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, inched up by 0.1%, slightly below consensus' forecasts of 0.2%. On an annual basis, Core PCE prices, were up 1.7% over the last 12 months, remaining unchanged from January's yearly level. The Core PCE Index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, has remained under its targeted goal of 2% for every month over the last three years.
Elsewhere, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta cut its GDP growth forecast for the first quarter from 1.4% to 0.6%, in the wake of the downbeat consumer spending data. At the same time, the Atlanta Fed reported that the contribution of net exports to 1st quarter real GDP growth from Minus 0.26% to Minus 0.52%, amid lower than expected international trade data on Monday.
The soft data could compel the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to push back the timing of its next rate hike beyond April. Investors await a closely-watched speech by Fed chair Janet Yellen on Tuesday for further signals of possible dissension among top policymakers at the FOMC. Yellen's comments come several days after St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker and San Francisco Fed president John Williams all supported further tightening from the U.S. central bank in the coming months.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell more than 0.20% to an intraday low of 95.84, before settling at 95.99. The index is down by roughly 1% over the last month of trading. Any rate hikes by the Fed this year are viewed as bullish for the dollar, as investors pile into the greenback in order to capitalize on higher yields.
Yields on the U.S. 10-year fell two basis points to 1.88%, while yields on the Germany 10-year were flat at 0.18%.