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EUR/USD falls slightly as ECB holds rates steady, warns of further cuts

Published 04/21/2016, 06:16 PM
Updated 04/21/2016, 06:21 PM
EUR/USD fell mildly on Thursday to close below 1.13 for the second straight session
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Investing.com -- EUR/USD inched down on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session, as the European Central Bank held interest rates steady at a highly-anticipated meeting on Thursday, while hinting that rates could be cut again in the short-term future.

The currency pair traded between 1.12711 and 1.1399, before settling at 1.1298, up 0.0060 or 0.54% on the session. With the slight losses, the euro closed below 1.13 against the dollar for a second consecutive session. Despite a recent downturn, the euro is still up against its American counterpart by roughly 1% since Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen emphasized that the U.S. central bank will remain cautious with future interest rate hikes at a closely-watched speech last month.

EUR/USD likely gained support at 1.0538, the low from December 3 and was met with resistance at 1.1496, the high from Oct. 15.

On Thursday afternoon, the ECB's Governing Council left its benchmark interest rate for the euro zone at a record-low of zero in a closely-watched decision in Frankfurt. At the same time, the ECB's deposit rate remained unchanged at Minus-0.4%, while its marginal lending facility rate also stayed unchanged at 0.25%. In March, the ECB lowered the deposit rate, or the rate it charges on overnight, commercial bank deposits parked at the central bank, to its lowest level on record. The marginal lending rate is the rate at which banks pay to borrow money stored at the ECB.

The Governing Council also opted to leave the scope and duration of its comprehensive quantitative easing program unchanged at €80 billion per month. In December, the ECB extended the asset-purchasing program through March, 2017, "or beyond."

At a press conference following Thursday's policy statement release, ECB president Mario Draghi sent strong indications that further rate cuts could be forthcoming.

"We continue to expect them (interest rates) to remain at present, or lower, levels for an extended period of time and well past the horizon of asset purchases," Draghi said.

Draghi also spent a portion of his press conference defending the ECB's independence against Germany and other critics of its monetary policy. Inflation in the euro zone was flat in March on a year-over-year basis, above estimates for a 0.1% decline.

"We have a mandate to pursue price stability for the whole of the euro zone not only for Germany," Draghi said. "We obey the law, not the politicians, because we are independent as stated by the law."

The ECB's dovish stance could prompt the Federal Reserve to follow suit when it faces a similar interest rate decision next week. A subsequent rate cut by the ECB could also allow the Fed to implicitly tighten monetary policy while leaving short-term interest rates unchanged. Since approving a historic interest rate hike in December, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has held its benchmark Federal Funds Rate unchanged at a targeted range between 0.25 and 0.50% in each of its first two meetings this year.

Any rate hikes by the Fed this year are viewed as bullish for the dollar as investors pile into the greenback in an effort to capitalize on higher yields.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, rallied sharply to an intraday high of 94.68 in U.S. afternoon trading before settling at 94.62. Despite the rebound, the index still remains near eight-month lows.

Yields on the U.S. 10-Year surged to a three-week high at 1.891, before settling at 1.865.

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