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EUR/USD falls slightly amid dovish Fed comments, likely ECB rate cuts

Published 01/14/2016, 05:48 PM
Updated 01/14/2016, 05:59 PM
EUR/USD fell by 0.18% on Thursday but still remained above 1.08
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Investing.com -- EUR/USD fell slightly on Thursday extending losses from earlier this week, amid indications from the Federal Reserve that it could consider delaying its next interest rate hike and signals from the European Central Bank that further cuts in its deposit rate could be forthcoming.

The currency pair traded between 1.0835 and 1.0942, before settling at 1.0866, down 0.0019 or 0.18% on the session. While the currency pair has closed lower in four of the last five sessions, the fluctuations have been minor. After ending 2015 down approximately 10% on the year, the euro is virtually flat on the new year – up only 0.09%. EUR/USD likely gained support at 1.0538, the low from December 3 and was met with resistance at 1.1496, the high from Oct. 15.

Citing the potential for diminished inflation expectations, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard strongly hinted that the Fed should consider delaying its first interest rate hike since it abandoned a seven-year zero interest policy in December. At a speech on the economy and monetary policy in Memphis, Bullard also pointed to persistent weakness in China and the global economy for factors on why an imminent rate hike could be tough to justify. Bullard, a noted hawk, is a non-voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the current cycle. Although the FOMC is not expected to lift short-term interest rates when it meets next on Jan. 27-28, there is a higher probability that the U.S. central bank could raise rates again when it meets in March.

Elsewhere, the U.S. Department of Labor said Thursday that initial jobless claims ticked up by 7,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 284,000 for the week ending on January 9. Analysts expected the figure to decline slightly to 275,000 on the week. Nevertheless, new unemployment claims remained under 300,000 for the 45th consecutive week, extending the longest stretch since the early 1970s. Continuing claims also rose by 29,000 for the second straight week to reach 2.263 million, the highest level since mid-August.

In Europe, the minutes from the ECB Governing Council's December meeting showed that the central bank could be ready to lower its deposit rate again in the face of persistently low inflation. While the ECB lowered its deposit rate one-tenth to minus 0.3% at the meeting early last month, ECB president Mario Draghi was widely criticized for not instituting stronger easing measures with the bank's €1.1 trillion asset-purchasing program. In the weeks since, euro zone inflation has come under pressure from crashing oil prices and weakening demand for exports. The ECB could lower interest rates even further when it convenes at a closely-watched meeting next Thursday.

Also on Thursday, the Bank of England as expected, left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%. The rate has remained at its current record-low at every meeting since March, 2009. Earlier this week, the pound fell to a fresh five-year low.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, gained more than 0.40% to an intraday high of 99.30, before closing at 99.13. The index remains near 12-month highs from December, when it eclipsed 100.00.

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