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EUR/USD falls sharply, as weak inflation dampens rate hike possibility

Published 10/15/2015, 05:17 PM
Updated 10/15/2015, 05:26 PM
EUR/USD fell more than 0.85% on Thursday to close below 1.14
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Investing.com -- EUR/USD fell sharply on Thursday, as the release of soft U.S. inflation data for September added support for dovish arguments regarding a delayed interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve until at least the start of 2016.

The currency pair traded in a broad range between 1.1363 and 1.1496, before settling at 1.1374, down 0.0100 or 0.87% on the session. At one point, though, the euro surged to its highest level against the dollar before falling considerably throughout the session. The euro has still closed higher against the dollar in seven of the last 10 sessions. Over the last month of trading, the euro is up more than 0.5% against its American counterpart.

EUR/USD likely gained support at 1.117, the low from October 6 and was met with resistance at 1.1625, the high from Aug. 25.

On Thursday morning, the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said its Consumer Price Index fell by 0.2% for the month of September, in line with consensus estimates. A month earlier, the prior reading fell by 0.1% in August. On a year-over-year basis, the headline reading is identical to its level 12 months ago.

There were signals throughout the report of weakness in the energy sector restraining inflationary pressures overall. For the month, energy prices declined by 4.7%, while gasoline prices plummeted by 9.0% in September. The dip in energy prices pulled down transportation costs, which fell by 2.3% on the month.

The effects were reflected in the modest gains in Core CPI Inflation, which strips out food and energy prices. On a monthly basis, Core CPI rose by 0.2% from its level in August, while increasing 1.9% over the last year. Still, Core PCE Inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge for long-term inflation remains under 1.5%. The Fed would like to see long-term inflation move toward its targeted goal 2% before it raises its benchmark Federal Funds Rate.

Last month at an appearance at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, Fed chair Janet Yellen indicated that the Fed could raise short-term interest rates this year barring unforeseen developments over the next several weeks. Yellen also noted that the inflation shortfall is likely to be transitory, as one-off factors such as lower energy prices and weaker imports due to a stronger dollar abate. Yellen added that inflation should reach the Fed's 2% target when the labor market returns to full employment. Long-term inflation has remained under the Fed's goal for every month over the last three years.

The FOMC is expected to take a "data-driven approach," in determining whether it should wait until 2016 for lift-off.

Investors also await the release of inflation data in the euro zone on Friday for further indications on whether the European Central Bank could extend the scope of its comprehensive €60 billion a month quantitative easing program. The data could show that inflation in September gained 0.1% on a yearly basis, while remaining unchanged from its level in August.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, rose more than 0.5% to an intraday high of 94.63, before closing at 94.49. Earlier in the session it fell to a fresh monthly low at 93.83.

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