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EUR/USD ends week with rally as Greece, Fed rate hike continue to weigh

Published 07/02/2015, 05:08 PM
Updated 07/02/2015, 05:15 PM
The euro rose modestly against the dollar on Thursday, closing above 1.10
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Investing.com -- EUR/USD rallied on Thursday amid a weaker than expected U.S. jobs report for June, as a highly anticipated Greek referendum this weekend remained in focus.

The currency pair wavered between 1.1033 and 1.1121 in Thursday's session, before falling back slightly to 1.1086 at the close, gaining 0.0033 or 0.30% on the final day of trading this week. EUR/USD posted modest gains on the week after opening on Monday just above 1.10.

The pair likely gained support at 1.0953, the low from June 29 and was met with resistance at 1.1411, the high from June 22.

On Thursday morning, the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics said non-farm payrolls in June rose by 223,000, slightly lower than consensus estimates from economists of a 230,000 gain. The slight pullback comes a month after a robust report in May when the economy added 280,000 non-farm jobs. The Labor Department also revised the May figure downward on Thursday by 26,000 to 254,000.

Average hourly wages also remained flat on a month to month basis, one month after surging 0.3% in May. Analysts forecasted a 0.2% increase in wages for June. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, ticked down to 5.3% slightly above consensus forecasts for a 0.1% decline to 5.4%. In May, the unemployment rate inched up by 0.1% to 5.5%.

The U-6 unemployment rate, a broader gauge of the employment outlook throughout the U.S., fell 0.3% to 10.5%. The rate measures the total level of unemployment in the labor market along with the rate of marginally attached workers, as well as the level of part-time workers in the workforce. Marginally attached workers are defined as people currently without jobs, who are not currently looking for work but have sought employment in the last 12 months. The U-6 rate is a measure preferred by Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, as she weighs the strength of the labor market.

The relatively benign employment report could convince dovish policymakers at the Fed to delay the timing of a highly anticipated interest rate hike beyond September. Last month, Yellen reiterated that the Fed would like to see continued improvement in GDP, wage and inflationary growth before it lifts short-term interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade.

While there were few developments in the contentious Greek Debt negotiations on Thursday, the International Monetary Fund cast a dark pall over the ongoing crisis with a stark warning on the long-term economic outlook in Greece. As Greek citizens consider a controversial referendum on Sunday, which may determine the nation's status in the euro zone, the IMF said the cash-strapped nation needs €50 billion and significant debt relief to make it through 2018. Earlier in the week, Greece became the first advanced nation in more than 70 years to default on a loan to the IMF.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.25% to 96.27 amid a wave of downbeat U.S. economic data. USD/CAD dipped 0.38% to 1.2543, falling off two and a half month highs.

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