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EU's $1 trillion safety net cuts market risks -Reuters poll

Published 05/13/2010, 09:15 AM
Updated 05/13/2010, 09:24 AM

* Chance of Greece leaving euro zone falls to 5 percent

* Short-term risk of Greek debt restructuring down to 10 pct

* 20 percent chance of Greece/Portugal accessing safety net

* Euro zone economy seen sluggish for foreseeable future

By Andy Bruce

LONDON, May 13 (Reuters) - The $1 trillion financial safety net announced for the euro zone this week will give financial markets "lasting confidence" and there is only a slim chance that individual countries will need to use the net, a Reuters poll of over 60 economists showed.

Median forecasts from 26 economists pointed to a diminishing chance of Greece leaving the euro zone in the next five years. They also suggested the euro zone's economic recovery would stay sluggish over the next 18 months.

The poll was conducted after Monday's announcement of a 750 billion euro ($1 trillion) emergency aid facility led by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, designed to douse market speculation about the vulnerability of the most debt-ridden countries in the euro zone.

Twenty-five out of 27 economists who answered a question on the subject said they expected the package to succeed.

"The actions announced over the weekend tick all the boxes and make an explicit statement to markets that European governments are prepared to go to extraordinary lengths to defend the single currency union," said Azad Zangana of Schroders Investment in London.

Respondents assigned Greece and Portugal, seen by markets as the most vulnerable countries, only a one-in-five chance of accessing the emergency funds in the next year, and a one-in-ten chance for Spain and Ireland. Greece is already receiving a separate international bailout, announced early this month, worth 110 billion euros.

GREECE

Economists cut their estimate of the probability of Greece's economic crisis forcing it out of the euro zone in the next five years to 5 percent. That was down from 9 percent in a Reuters poll on April 28.

Greece's economy shrank 0.8 percent in the first quarter, figures showed on Wednesday. While that was nowhere near as bad as some had feared, analysts expect worse ahead as harsh austerity measures take effect.

But economists surveyed in Thursday's poll said Athens probably now had all the help it needed to survive the crisis.

"Some of the measures that will be put in place in Greece, the country that faces the most adverse debt dynamics, will also address some questions regarding international competitiveness," said Paula Carvalho at Banco BPI in Lisbon.

Economists also think the risk of Greece needing to restructure its 300 billion euro debt has fallen. Respondents in the latest Reuters poll gave a 10 percent chance of a restructuring in the next 12 months, down from 20 percent in the April 28 poll.

For Portugal, Spain and Ireland, they assigned a 5 percent chance of a sovereign debt restructuring in the next 12 months to each country.

SLUGGISH GROWTH

Partly because of austerity measures in some economies, median forecasts from around 40 economists predicted quarterly gross domestic product growth in the euro zone would not exceed 0.5 percent in any quarter through to the end of next year.

Forecasters expect the region's economy to grow 1.0 percent this year and 1.5 percent next year, unchanged from April's long-term Reuters poll on G7 economies.

"The euro area is clearly lagging behind other advanced economies and growth remains strongly dependent on temporary factors such as the inventory cycle and stimulus packages," said Kerstin Bernoth at German economic research institute DIW.

With pre-crisis levels of growth still looking distant and uncertainty surrounding sovereign debt, forecasters held onto their view that the European Central Bank would wait until the first quarter of next year to start hiking interest rates.

Median forecasts showed the ECB raising rates by 25 basis points in each quarter next year.

(Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Andrew Torchia)

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