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Emerging outpace developed market fund flows-EPFR

Published 04/15/2011, 12:49 PM
Updated 04/15/2011, 12:52 PM
BIG
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* Emerging market stock funds pull in net $2.01 billion

* ETFs lead $2.46 bln net inflow for German stock funds

* U.S. stock fund net outflow of $356 million

* U.S. bond fund outflow of $159 mln, first in nine weeks

By Daniel Bases

NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - Emerging market stocks and bonds, for the first time this year, took in more cash than their developed market counterparts in the week ended April 13, fund-tracker EPFR Global said on Friday.

EPFR reasoned that rising energy prices, a mixed start to first quarter corporate earnings reports, Portugal's sovereign debt problems and Japan's ongoing nuclear crisis all combined to drive investors away from developed markets.

In the latest week, emerging market equity funds took in just over $2 billion. The broadest category, known as GEM (global emerging market) funds had net inflows of $1.64 billion.

That is in contrast to the $356 million in net redemptions from U.S. equity funds and a $293 million outflow from Japanese equity funds. Japanese funds have suffered three weeks of net outflows. The severity of the nuclear disaster was upgraded to its highest level, matching the disaster at Chernobyl.

"In contrast to the previous week, when 22 of the 25 major fund groups tracked by EPFR Global posted inflows, only 15 took in fresh money during the week ending April 13," the firm said in a statement.

"Money market funds absorbed the lion's share, taking in a nine week high of $10.37 billion versus $3.2 billion for all equity funds and $531 million for bond funds," EPFR said.

Russia continues to be a bright spot among the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) category, as it benefits from high energy prices. EPFR said inflows into Russia - $262 million - marking the 26th out of the last 28 weeks although some fund managers are starting to question valuations.

Brazil, India and China had outflows of $89 million, $29 million, and $116 million, respectively. Dedicated BRIC funds managed just $5 million worth of inflows.

The capital controls instituted by Brazil to temper speculative money flows and the surge to the front in Peru's first round presidential election last weekend by left-wing nationalist Ollanta Humala contributed to a $163 million outflow for Latin America focused funds, EPFR said.

Not everyone is convinced Humala is necessarily marking a sell signal on Peru. For more, click on [ID:nN14283353].

On the more speculative side, frontier market funds had outflows of $31 million.

Japan's nuclear crisis was seen as a positive for South Korean exporters and as a result funds focused on this north Asia nation took in a net $175 million.

One bright spot for developed markets was the $1.25 billion net inflow for developed European equity funds.

"Behind the overall number, however, was a big shift away from regional funds to those concentrating on Germany with strong institutional commitments helping Germany equity funds post their biggest weekly inflow since the second week of May, 2010," EPFR said.

German funds took in a net $2.46 billion, with most of the cash flowing into a few large exchange traded funds.

Emerging Europe, defined as EMEA funds (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) had a modest net inflow of $67 million.

SECTOR FUNDS

Higher energy prices and the start of earnings season put a damper on sector funds. Even as oil and gas prices remain elevated, net redemptions from a single large energy-focused ETF led to a net outflow of $1.14 billion from energy sector funds overall. It was the worst week since the third quarter of 2008.

EPFR said higher interest rates, insurance costs related to Japan and uncertainty over financial regulation led to a $320 million outflow from financial sector stock funds.

Real estate however took in $245 million while the defensive healthcare/biotechnology sector had a paltry $9 million worth of inflows.

DEBT

Emerging markets outshone developed markets, with an inflow from retail investors driving the four-week trend.

Local currency bond funds had inflows of $210 million; hard currency, ie: those denominated in U.S. dollars or euros took in a net $238 million.

On the developed market side, U.S. bond funds had outflows of $159 million, their first in nine weeks. One main cause for this outflow was the continued pulling out of cash by retail investors from the municipal bond market. Retail investors make up 80 percent of the market, EPFR noted.

"The possibility that this asset class could lose its federal tax-exempt status as part of the latest push to tame the US deficit has trumped encouraging news about default rates and a sharp drop in new issuance," the firm said.

Europe's debt crisis was seen behind a $946 million outflow.

However, the hunt for returns pulled fresh cash into high yield bond funds, to the tune of $726 million, bringing the year-to-date inflow to $17.7 billion..

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