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EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks rise 1 pct; Polish local bonds bid

Published 01/28/2010, 07:11 AM
Updated 01/28/2010, 07:15 AM

* Stocks rebound 1 percent; break 5-day losing streak

* Polish 2009 GDP 1.7 percent; C.Europe bonds shrug off Greece

* More emerging c.banks signal rate hikes imminent

By Sujata Rao

LONDON, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Emerging stocks snapped a 5-day losing streak on Thursday to jump 1.2 percent and high-yield currencies rose on back of a risk rally fuelled by the U.S. president's speech laying out plans to revive the world's largest economy.

Markets were relieved President Barack Obama focused on job creation and boosting exports in his speech rather than the bank reform proposals, which had contributed to the hefty selloff in world stocks and riskier assets earlier this week.

However, despite the rebound emerging equities are set for their worst monthly performance since last February, having lost almost 5 percent since the start of the year.

Emerging economies have so far been fairly resilient to the Greek crisis which on Thursday pushed the Greek-German yield spread to a new record high and pressured the euro.

Credit default swaps for most emerging sovereigns fell, with the iTraxx SovX CEEMEA index down three basis points versus Wednesday to around 224 bps. Central European currencies firmed and bonds rose despite a continuing widening in Greek spreads.

"Bid has returned to emerging markets this morning," said Manik Narain, strategist at Standard Chartered in London.

"The contagion effect is proving fairly limited so far and (emerging) European credit and bond markets look pretty well de-correlated from Greece though currencies have been a bit shaky," Narain added.

The Polish zloty firmed 0.5 percent to the euro while the forint rose 0.5 percent. Emerging European local bonds also saw good buying with a Hungarian auction seeing decent bid-cover of 1.7 on the long 10-year sector.

Poland shone as data showed an above-forecast 1.7 percent economic growth in 2009 and confirmed its status as the only European Union state to avoid recession last year.

The Polish two year bond touched the highest since mid-November, before paring gains.

"The Polish short end is very very well bid. Last week they had really good issuance which was absorbed well and I am seeing a lot of demand for Poland," a bond trader in Germany said.

"People are clearly differentiating between good and not-so-good credits," he added.

A sale of 52-week 1 billion zloty paper earlier this week drew bids of over four times that amount while an auction of 10-year paper sold last week had a bid-cover ratio of over 3.

Regional stocks all rebounded strongly, with the Budapest market posting gains of almost 2 percent.

Romania's leu was flat off the strong gains on Wednesday, triggered by the International Monetary Fund's decision to release the frozen tranches of a 20 billion euro loan package. The small stock market rose over 2 percent.

In Turkey bond and currency markets were flat but stocks jumped 1 percent after dipping this week to three-week lows.

EM CLAMPDOWN ON INFLATION; INDIA TO HIKE

Elsewhere in emerging markets there were clear signs that central banks are preparing to stamp on growing price pressures with Philippines raising short-term lending rates and regional giant India expected to raise interest rates on Friday.

Indian 10-year bond yields edged up, staying a whisker off the 15-month highs hit earlier this month.

A Wednesday central bank meeting in Brazil also signalled imminent policy tightening, pushing Brazilian stocks to 10-week lows. While Russia's central bank said there is still room for rate cuts, inflation in January was higher than predicted.

Analysts say rate rises are some way off in emerging Europe, another factor providing support to local bonds.

"Central bankers here will not rush to raise rates, the inflation outlook is benign," said Agata Urbanska, strategist at ING, predicting Poland will not hike rates at all this year.

On the bond front, Russian oil firm TNK-BP kicked off the corporate issuance season in the region, raising $1 billion via two tranches yielding 405.5 and 384.8 bps over U.S. Treasuries.

The book was 9 times oversubscribed, one source said, adding: "It was a solid credit and a decent spread."

Another Russian bank VTB also said it plans to borrow $5 billion on global markets in 2010.

Emerging bonds rose, with yield spreads to U.S. Treasuries down 4 bps to 297 bps but up over 20 bps on the month.

(Reporting by Sujata Rao; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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