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EMERGING MARKETS-Shares up on economy optimism, shun China fears

Published 08/28/2009, 07:41 AM
Updated 08/28/2009, 07:45 AM
NWG
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* Emerging shares up despite Chinese equity losses

* Polish GDP data boosts emerging European sentiment

* Ukraine lifts FX curbs, Latvia gets IMF loan

By Sebastian Tong

LONDON, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Renewed optimism over the global economy nudged emerging assets higher on Friday, helping them shake off much of their early week doldrums and sidestep steep falls on the Chinese bourse.

Consensus-defying second-quarter growth figures from Poland boosted sentiment, as did growing signs of stabilisation in the emerging European economies hardest hit by the financial crisis.

A nearly 3-percent fall in the Shanghai Composite Index, sparked off by reports that China might curb bank lending, failed to deter investors.

Markets instead took heart from U.S. data showing the economy shrank less sharply than expected in the second quarter and unemployment claims dropped last week.

Data showing euro zone economic sentiment improving more than expected in August provided further support. Emerging shares snapped a three-day losing streak to rise nearly 1 percent by 1100 GMT while emerging sovereign debt spreads narrowed 3 basis points to trade at 372 basis points above U.S. Treasuries.

"A lot of people have missed out on the recent risk trade and they are returning from their holidays next week so we are expecting the rally to carry on into September," said Imran Ahmad, emerging markets strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland.

"But the fundamentals don't look good in economies such as Hungary and the Baltics and a risk of devaluation in some places remain. The real damage to the balance sheets of these countries mean we should expect a selloff before the end of the year."

Hungarian shares were among the day's biggest gainers, rising 3.7 percent to hover near their highest levels since October last year.

News that Poland's economy grew by 1.1 percent year-on-year, in the second quarter, twice the pace forecast, fuelled an over 3-percent jump in Polish shares.

UKRAINE, ICELAND

The robust second-quarter growth chalked up by central Europe's biggest economy also pushed the zloty 0.8 percent higher against the euro, making it one of the best performing emerging currencies of the day.

"This, in our view, puts a line in the current cycle, with no need for further interest rates reduction... Data is supportive for zloty," UniCredit said in a note.

Hungary's forint proved to be the exception to broadly firmer central European currencies, dipping 0.4 percent after comments by a central banker that the economy needed lower interest rates and a weaker currency to make a faster recovery.

Meanwhile, the Ukraine hryvnia was quoted 2 percent higher against the dollar a day after Kiev said it would end a ban on forward and spot trades on its foreign currency market from Oct. 26. The ban was imposed in April to support its hryvnia currency.

Other signs of returning financial normalcy were seen in emerging Europe.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday formally gave its approval on a delayed 200 million euro loan to Latvia, part of a delayed rescue package for the Baltic state.

Lawmakers in Iceland, one of the first and biggest casualties of the financial crisis, passed a bill on Friday to repay Britain and the Netherlands more than $5 billion lost in Icelandic deposit accounts last year.

The move paves the way for further international aid to the island economy.

The cost of insuring Icelandic sovereign debt for five years has declined some 40 bps since the start of the week, according to CMA DataVision. (Editing by Lin Noueihed)

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