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EMERGING MARKETS-LatAm stocks drop, Argentina dispute deepens

Published 01/08/2010, 06:27 PM
Updated 01/08/2010, 06:30 PM

* LatAm stocks slip while currencies gain on U.S. dollar

* Argentina dispute over currency reserves deepens

* Speculation of Venezuela devaluation

By Daniel Bases

NEW YORK, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Emerging market assets were mixed on Friday as investors wrestled with weak U.S. jobs data, an increasingly messy political showdown in Argentina and speculation of a a currency devaluation in Venezuela.

Currencies across the region gained ground on the U.S. dollar which suffered under the weight of a disappointing jobs report. Stock markets closed mostly lower while bond prices were weaker.

The fragile optimism that the U.S. economy was making a steady revival suffered a setback after employers cut 85,000 jobs last month, confounding expectations the labor market was stabilizing. [ID:nN0747110]

While some emerging market nations survived the financial crisis that emanated from the United States and are thriving on a long-term basis, the U.S. economy still serves as a proxy for global economic recovery and has a psychological importance for investor bets.

The MSCI Latin American stock index fell 0.2 percent on the day <.MILA00000PUS> while the broader MSCI emerging market index <.MSCIEF> rose 0.2 percent.

In the credit markets, the yield spread on the benchmark JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus <11EMJ><.JPMEMBIPLUS> widened by 2 basis points to 270 over U.S. Treasuries.

In Mexico's new central bank chief, Agustin Carstens, said on Friday he would not raise interest rates for now.

He also suggested the new finance minister who replaced him could attend monetary policy meetings to improve cooperation on the economy.

Yields on interest rate futures <0#TII:> dipped following Carstens' comments as investors pared bets for higher rates.

Finance Minister Ernesto Cordero predicted the economy could grow a little more than 3.0 percent in 2010.

ARGENTINA

Argentina's financial markets closed down as investors reacted to a deepening dispute over the president's plan to use central bank foreign reserves to guarantee debt payments this year. [ID:nN08161491] [ID:nN08233593]

Analysts point out that Argentina has the ability to cover its financing needs this year and next.

ING's global head of emerging markets strategy in New York, David Spegel, said: "They'll be OK until 2012 or longer. They've got enough reserves and resources to deal with that and their amortization profile doesn't really get ugly until after 2012."

Argentina's existing international bonds have come under some selling pressure after President Cristina Fernandez issued a decree to remove Martin Redrado.

The conflict has highlighted persistent political instability in Latin America's No. 3 economy just as Fernandez's cash-strapped government seeks to charm investors and issue global bonds eight years after a massive default.

Last year, Argentina's international debt was in demand, returning a 132.8 percent gain, according to the EMBI+.

That made Argentina the best 2009 performer among EMBI components. The overall index showed a 25.948 percent return.

Double-digit debt investment yields, roughly $48 billion in reserves and movement toward cleaning up leftover fallout from its huge 2001/02 debt default were factors behind the rally.

"A lot of expectations were behind the rally, and Argentina has not sold off that much when you compare it to other credits," said Spegel.

Argentina's dollar-denominated Discount paper fell 1 percent to bid 71.75 while the Par bond fell 0.625 percent to bid 33.875 in price, yielding 10.699 percent.

Morgan Stanley thinks this conflict between Fernandez and Redrado eventually lead to a fight in the courts.

"To me this seems like it is going to be a pretty long and protracted, very public confrontation. It cannot be good news (for investors)," said Daniel Volberg, Latin American economist at Morgan Stanley in New York.

VENEZUELA

In Venezuela, a government source told Reuters President Hugo Chavez will make a major economic announcement, which investors speculated meant a currency devaluation was in the works.

That sparked buying of U.S. dollar-denominated Venezuelan debt because this would act as a hedge against a drop in the value of the currency, the bolivar.[ID:nN08193490]

The bolivar has been fixed at 2.15 to the U.S. dollar since 2005, but it trades on a parallel black market at way over that rate. The bolivar weakened on Friday from about 5.90 to 6.10 to the dollar in parallel trade, on the rumors of a devaluation.

A devaluation, while helping exporters and boosting government coffers from oil revenues, would add pressure to Venezuela's inflation rate, which in 2009 was already the highest in the Americas at 25.1 percent [ID:nN07187396].

"The market should react positively to such a move: The government is long dollars; a devaluation increases its fiscal solvency, curtailing its financing needs," RBS Securities wrote clients.

Venezuela's benchmark 2027 bond was bid up 0.625 points in price to bid 79.75, yielding 12.04 percent, according to a market source. (Additional reporting by Reuters correspondents worldwide)

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