EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real firms ahead of Fed, pesos mixed

Published 11/03/2010, 12:00 PM
Updated 11/03/2010, 12:04 PM

* Eyes on U.S. Federal Reserve statement at 1815 GMT

* Brazil's real jumps 0.7 pct, Mexican peso gains 0.1 pct

* Chile's peso weakens 0.3 on intervention fears (Adds context about Brazil, updates prices)

By Samantha Pearson and Froilan Romero

SAO PAULO/SANTIAGO, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Brazil's currency surged on Wednesday while Mexico's peso hit a 6-month high ahead of a likely announcement on monetary stimulus measures in the United States.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce after 2:15 p.m. EDT (1815 GMT) asset purchases of at least $500 billion via quantitative easing -- in effect printing money to buy bonds and lower borrowing costs. For more, see: [ID:nLDE6A2062]

That should keep yields on U.S. Treasuries close to record lows, encouraging investors to buy Latin America's higher-yielding bonds.

Brazil is a prime target because the country's benchmark interest rate of 10.75 percent is one of the highest in the world.

The Brazilian real surged as much as 1.1 percent in early trading on Wednesday and was later up 0.70 percent at 1.694 reais per U.S. dollar on the local spot market.

The real was also pricing in the region's gains on Tuesday, when Brazil's markets were closed for a public holiday.

"The market was shut yesterday, so there was a movement in other currencies that the real wasn't able to follow. But to a great extent, (the real is stronger) in anticipation of the results of the Fed meeting," said Marianna Costa, an economist with Link Investimentos in Sao Paulo.

"Anything close to $500 billion is already priced into the market. If it was something closer to $1 trillion, there could be some more space for appreciation. If it is less (than $500 billion), the market, like everywhere else in the world, is not going to take it well."

The Mexican currency edged up to its strongest level since May 3, later trading 0.10 percent stronger at 12.2927 per dollar.

"I believe the Fed will move to purchase the expected $500 billion in bonds and the peso won't see a huge move after the announcement," said Alfredo Puig, a trader at Vector brokerage in Monterrey, Mexico.

But if the amount is less than expected, the currency could rapidly weaken to 12.38, he added.

Some economists say the peso could outperform the region's other currencies in the months ahead because of the country's hands-off approach to its currency market. [ID:nN0147422]

WAITING TO STRIKE

Other governments across the region have taken a series of intervention measures, such as dollar purchases and capital controls, to slow rallies in their local currencies.

A stronger currency makes exports more expensive abroad and can cause long-term damage to a country's economy.

For example, data this week is expected to show that Brazil's industrial output slowed again last month because of the strong real.

Fears of new measures hit the Chilean peso on Wednesday. It weakened 0.33 percent to 488.6 per dollar. [ID:nN30113748]

"There are rumors in the market that after the Fed's decision, some new measures will be taken here to curb the peso," said one trader in Santiago.

The peso has strengthened 12 percent since the end of June as the country has recovered rapidly from a devastating earthquake in February.

President Sebastian Pinera said last week his government is working to open capital accounts and relax limits on investments abroad to battle the peso's appreciation.

Analysts say the central bank may also go back to buying dollars in the market or find others ways to encourage capital outflows. [ID:nN20242719] (Additional reporting by Caroline Stauffer and Noe Torres in Mexico City; Editing by Dan Grebler)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.