* Zloty to gain 4 pct in one yr, crown, leu about 1 percent
* Forint seen weaker in 12 months after recent surge
* Zloty, crown fcasts slightly firmer than month ago
* Forint, leu 12-month fcasts weaker than month ago
By Sandor Peto
BUDAPEST, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Central European currencies are expected to firm further in the next 12 months, led by the zloty, but the forint may retreat after a surge in recent weeks, a monthly Reuters poll of analysts showed on Wednesday.
Median forecasts in the Oct 4-5 poll of 30 analysts showed the zloty could firm 4.4 percent against the euro from Tuesday's close in the next 12 months -- rising to 3.78 compared with a 3.82 forecast a month ago.
The leu and the Czech crown are expected to firm 1.4 and 0.9 percent, respectively, while the Hungarian forint is seen weakening by 2.4 percent.
The leu's projected level at 4.22 against the euro is weaker than last month's 4.1 forecast, while the consensus for the forint weakened to 276 from 271.50.
This reflects their status as more vulnerable economies than elsewhere in the region and continuing concerns over the government's fragility in Romania, analysts said.
They said uncertainty about global growth and western European markets for goods produced in the region's emerging economies' maintained exchange rate risks.
But the prospect of new quantitative easing in the United States is likely to keep flows to emerging market assets flowing as investors search for higher yields than the ultra-low returns being offered further West.
"Interest rates of developed economies can remain low for a longer period of time and accommodative monetary policies may support all currencies in our region in the forthcoming months," said Balint Hada of Quaestor Financial Consulting in Budapest.
BUDGET RISKS
Analysts were split over the prospects of the forint which traded near 5-month highs on Wednesday after a 7 percent surge since the government's announcement a month ago that it would cut the budget deficit to below 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) next year to meet the EU's requirements.
Analysts said the details of the 2011 budget to be published in coming weeks would be key for Hungarian assets, but most of them expected the forint to retreat already in the short term.
The consensus for its end-October level was 275, compared with Wednesday's trade around the key 270 technical level.
"Currently, on the shorter run, some correction can come in the forint (technically it is also rather overbought) but if the dollar weakens further, the forint can remain strong," said Zoltan Arokszallasi of Erste Bank in Budapest. The median forecast of 276 in the 12-month horizon showed weaker forint levels than a month ago, but the individual projections showed that views were mixed, with many forecasts centering around 263 and many others around 280.
Wolfgang Ernst of Raiffeisen Research in Vienna said he expected global economic slowdown, a rise in risk aversion and a retreat by the region's currencies by the end of the year.
"The forint is from a fundamental point of view more vulnerable than other currencies in the region, while the zloty (the most liquid currency in the region) from a liquidity point of view," he said.
Most analysts, however, see the zloty firming gradually in the next 12 months, even though some analysts expect it to retreat in the next weeks along with the region's other units.
"(We expect) further zloty appreciation taking into account (that the) zloty is still undervalued after its 2008/2009 strong depreciation, while (Poland has) strong macroeconomic fundamentals," said Janina Swiatkowska of PKO BP in Warsaw.
(Reporting by Sandor Peto; editing by Patrick Graham)