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Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: February 20 - 24

Published 02/19/2012, 04:58 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar ended the week higher against the Swiss franc on Friday, amid hopes that euro zone leaders will finally agree to deliver Greece’s much needed bailout package.

USD/CHF hit 0.9399 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since January 25; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9198 by close of trade on Friday, adding 0.53% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9129, the low of February 2 and resistance at 0.9262, the high of February 6.

Sentiment improved on Friday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos expressed optimism that an agreement would be reached at Monday's meeting of euro zone finance ministers.

However, investors remained cautious as European officials warned that that there was still a long way to go in order for Greece to meet the target for its debt burden which would allow the EUR130 billion bailout to proceed.

Without a bailout, Greece faces the threat of defaulting when a EUR14.5 billion bond redemption comes due on March 20.

Meanwhile, the greenback was also boosted by a string of robust U.S. economic data. On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor said initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to their lowest level since March 2008 last week, declining to 348,000, confounding expectations for an increase to 364,000.

In a separate report, the U.S. Census Bureau said the number of building permits issued in January rose 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted 0.68 million, broadly in line with market expectations.

Data also showed that an index of manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area rose more-than-expected in February, advancing to 10.2, above expectations for a rise to 9.0.

Meanwhile, U.S. core producer price inflation rose more-than-expected in January, ticking up 0.4% after a 0.3% rise the previous month. Analysts had expected core PPI to rise 0.1% in January.

On Friday, the U.S. Conference Board said that its index of leading economic indicators increased for the fourth consecutive month in January.

Earlier in the week, data showed that economic sentiment in Switzerland improved in February, rising significantly for the second consecutive month.

In a report, the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) said its indicator of economic sentiment improved to minus 21.2 in February from a reading of minus 50.1 in January.  

In the week ahead, markets will be keenly awaiting the outcome of Monday’s meeting of euro zone finance ministers, while markets in the U.S. will be closed for the Presidents Day holiday.

Also next week, the euro zone is to produce closely watched preliminary data on manufacturing a service sector activity, while the U.S. is to release a flurry of housing sector data.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 20

Markets in the U.S. will remain closed for the Presidents Day holiday.

Tuesday, February 21

Switzerland is to produce government data on trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods.

Wednesday, February 22

The U.S. is to release industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market, followed by official data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, February 23

The U.S. is to release government data on unemployment claims, an important signal of overall economic health.

Meanwhile, finance ministers and central bankers are to meet throughout the day for the seventh G20 meeting, in Mexico.

Friday, February 24

The U.S. is to round up the week with a revised report by the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment, followed by government data on new home sales, an important signal of economic health.


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