* ECB to pause until July
* Rates seen at 1.75 pct by end-2011
By Jonathan Cable
LONDON, April 7 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will pause for a couple of months before raising interest rates again in July, according to a Reuters poll taken after the bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years.
Nearly half of 62 economists polled said the ECB would not tighten monetary policy further until July, when it would make another 25 basis point increase to 1.50 percent. Ten said it would act in June while 12 said it would hold off until the third quarter.
The consensus estimate is in line with expectations currently priced into financial markets.
"The Governing Council will continue to 'monitor very closely all developments', which likely rules out a rate hike as soon as in May, but leaves the door open for the next move to occur in June or in July," said Frederik Ducrozet at CA-CIB. He was referring to comments by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet after Thursday's rate rise.
The ECB was the first of the big four central banks to act when it increased rates by 25 basis points from a record low of 1.0 percent.
Trichet, however, said it was not necessarily the start of a series of similar steps.
Median forecasts from the poll predicted interest rates would end the year at 1.75 percent, also in line with expectations in financial markets. Rates are set to end 2012 at 2.5 percent, unchanged from a poll taken last week.
Before Trichet shocked markets at the March ECB press conference by strongly hinting rates would rise in April, economists had not expected rates to rise until the fourth quarter of this year. The latest poll underscored the divergent policy paths of major central banks. The Bank of England left rates on hold at a record low of 0.5 percent on Thursday, as expected almost unanimously in a Reuters poll.
The U.S. Federal Reserve, which is still in the midst of a $600 billion bond purchase programme to stimulate the economy, is not seen raising the federal funds rate from a record low of 0-0.25 percent until early next year.
China, in contrast, raised rates on Tuesday for the fourth time since October, extending a long-term term fight against inflation.
TROUBLE IN THE BLOC
The ECB adopted a loose monetary policy two years ago to kick-start an economy going through the worst downturn since the Second World War but is now facing inflation running significantly above its 2 percent target ceiling.
Prices in the 17-nation bloc rose by an estimated 2.6 percent year-on-year in March and could increase further given rising oil prices.
But while the euro zone economy grew 0.3 percent in the final three months of last year, and is expected to have grown 0.5 percent in the current quarter, recent data suggests an upturn in Germany is masking a struggling periphery. [EUR/PMIS]
"The hike is unwelcome for peripheral countries, but arguably the core member states were in need of this move already some time ago," said Nick Kounis at ABN AMRO.
Portugal requested an EU-led bailout, estimated at about 60-80 billion euros, on Wednesday with Lisbon saying the risks to the economy had now become too great to go it alone after Portuguese borrowing rates soared in recent weeks. (Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit) (Editing by Susan Fenton)