* ECB rate hike seen Q4 2011, later than thought 2 weeks ago
* ECB staff will leave inflation forecasts unchanged
* ECB staff to raise 2010 GDP predictions
By Jonathan Cable
LONDON, Aug 25 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will not budge on interest rates until late next year at the earliest and while leaving its inflation projections unchanged, its 2010 growth forecasts will be ramped up, a Reuters poll showed.
None of the 78 economists polled this week said the ECB would change interest rates from a record low of 1.0 percent when it meets on Sept. 2 and medians suggest the first move up to 1.25 percent won't be until the last months of 2011.
That is later than the consensus for a rise in the third quarter of next year seen in a Reuters poll taken just two weeks ago. Worries about a global slowdown continue to weigh on policymakers' minds despite strength in Germany.
"The multiple headwinds to growth and the prospect of very low core inflation for some time to come suggest that the refinancing rate will be staying at 1 percent for a considerable period of time," said Ken Wattret at BNP Paribas.
While data released earlier this month showed the 16-nation euro zone's economy grew 1.0 percent in the second quarter -- its fastest pace in more than three years and outpacing growth in the United States -- growth is seen slowing to 0.3 percent in coming quarters.
Worryingly for policymakers, some indicators show there is a growing divergence in pace of recovery in the bloc with growth in Germany and France far outstripping lacklustre numbers from Spain and Italy.
"The contrast of very strong growth in northern Europe and the disaster of southern Europe will cause the ECB a very real problem in 2011," said Azad Zangana at Schroders.
"Tightening policy before southern Europe is ready could risk a break-up of the union, while tightening too late for northern Europe could lead to inflation pressures mounting in Germany and France."
PROJECTED PROJECTIONS
The majority of economists said the central bank would leave its staff projections for inflation this year and next unchanged at between 1.4 and 1.6 percent and 1.0 to 2.2 percent respectively.
While economists were convinced that the ECB would raise its 2010 growth forecast range of 0.7 to 1.3 percent -- with 45 of 46 saying they would -- they were more divided over what the bank would project for 2011.
Twenty said the bank would revise up its 0.2 to 2.2 percent 2011 forecasts while 22 said they would be left unchanged. Four said the forecasts would be revised down.
A Reuters poll taken earlier this month predicted growth of 1.2 percent this year and 1.4 percent in 2011.
LONG-TERM LENDING
The ECB is having some success in its efforts to wean banks off cheap money. Stronger lenders are reducing their dependence on central bank funding, but those from peripheral economies still need support.
Most economists polled said the central bank would end its policy of offering unlimited funds to banks in longer-term auctions in another 3-6 months.
For weekly operations, economists were more divided, with three saying they would not be extended, 10 saying they would be extended for three months, 19 for six months and 17 saying they would be extended for more than six months.
"With the experience that it usually takes some time before the 'super-tanker' ECB changes its course, we should expect the current policy to be continued for a while," said Gernot Griebling at LBBW.
The ECB started providing banks with unlimited funds at a fixed rate in September 2008 in an effort to calm markets. As the panic has subsided, the central bank has been slowly turning off the tap.
The bank lent 19.08 billion euros in three-month funds on Wednesday, almost in line with a Reuters poll. Outstanding ECB lending has fallen more than a third since the start of July.
The central bank has said that unlimited liquidity will be on offer in the shorter-term one-week and one-month operations until at least mid-October and until the end of September for three-month money.
Last week Bundesbank chief Axel Weber said he was "very strongly" of the view that three-month unlimited money should be extended at least into next year. (Editing by Stephen Nisbet)