* Vimpelcom Q1 2009 U.S. GAAP results
* Due on Thursday, May 28
* Q1 loss seen at $505 million vs $601 million profit Q1 '08
MOSCOW, May 27 (Reuters) - Russia's second-largest mobile phone operator Vimpelcom is expected to report a $505 million net loss as a falling rouble makes its foreign debt more costly, a Reuters poll of analysts showed.
Vimpelcom posted a $601 million profit in the first quarter of 2008 and an $816 million loss in the fourth quarter of 2008.
Analysts expect a $670 million-$1 billion forex loss on revaluation of its foreign currency debt.
Analysts said Vimpelcom's revenues would look more resilient compared to its largest competitor MTS, which has a higher share of corporate users, whose use of mobile phones reflected the decline in Russia's economy.
Analysts also said Vimpelcom is less exposed than MTS to crisis-hit Ukraine. Vimpelcom's shareholders, Norway's Telenor and Russia's Alfa Group, have been sparring for years over Vimpelcom's failure to expand in once-lucrative Ukraine.
"Due to stronger subscriber growth in Russia relative to MTS in Q1 2009 and lower contribution of Ukraine which was very weak in Q1 2009 we see Vimpelcom's mobile revenue dynamics quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year to be potentially better than that of MTS," Credit Suisse analysts said.
Following is a summary of first-quarter forecasts (figures in millions of dollars, except margin, expressed as a percentage, and Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), which is in dollars):
Revenue OIBDA OIBDA margin Net profit Average 1,987.0 893.2 45.0 -504.8 High 2,074.0 954.0 48.1 -221.0 Low 1,927.5 832.0 40.1 -986.0 Median 1,985.0 906.7 46.6 -390.3 No. of forecasts 8 8 8 9 Q1 2008 2,108.0 1,126.0 53.4 +601.0 Q4 2008 2,555.0 1,124.0 44.0 -816.0
ARPU Russia ARPU Kazakhstan Average 9.1 8.3 High 9.3 8.9 Low 9.0 7.8 Median 9.1 8.1 No. of forecasts 8 7 Q1 2008 13.2 11.6 Q4 2008 12.5 10.8 NOTE: Forecasts were obtained from Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Otkritiye, Renaissance Capital, UniCredit, Uralsib, VTB Capital. (Reporting by Maria Kiselyova and Anastasia Teterevleva; writing by Melissa Akin; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)