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EARNINGS POLL-Popular FY net seen down 6.1 pct, bad debts rise

Published 01/29/2009, 12:19 PM
Updated 01/29/2009, 12:24 PM
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* Banco Popular full-year results

* Due Jan 30, before market opens

* Net profit seen down 6.2 percent

MADRID, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Banco Popular, Spain's third largest bank and one of the most exposed to the country's slumping property sector, is expected to reveal a 6.2 percent decline in full-year net profit on Friday.

A Reuters poll of eleven analysts forecast 2008 net profit of 1.183 billion euros on average, down 6.2 percent from a year earlier.

The focus will be on the bank's deteriorating asset quality and any further loan loss provisions after a 112 million euro generic provision charged in the third quarter.

The global credit crunch and the domestic property market slump has sent bad debts for Spanish banks soaring, forcing banks to increase specific provisions earmarked to cover potential losses.

Popular's third quarter provision was aimed to cover exposure to Martinsa Fadesa, which filed for administration in July, and the acquisition of 9.2 percent of property group Colonial in exchange for debt in April.

But it is also exposed to more recent victims of the property and credit crises, including Metrovacesa, which recently agreed a debt-for-equity swap with its creditors, and unlisted property groups Tremon, Habitat and Nozar.

"Bad debt will continue to rise...and could reflect the latest companies to have filed for receivership," Ibersecurities analysts said.

Non-performing loans as percentage of total lending are seen growing to between 2.7 percent and 3.3 percent from 0.8 percent a year earlier and 2.19 percent in the third quarter.

Popular is due to report results before the market opens on Friday followed by a 0900 GMT webcast with analysts and a news conference at 1130 GMT.

Following is a breakdown of forecasts (simple average in billions of euros)

2008 2007 PERCENT CHG RANGE Net interest income 2.517 2.339 +7.6% 2.303-2.552 Operating income 2.372 2.245 +5.7% 2.311-2.538 Net profit 1.183 1.260 -6.2% 1.036-1.289

CONTRIBUTORS - BPI, Banesto, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America, Fortis, Espirito Santo, Standard & Poor's, Caja Madrid, ING, Kepler and Ibersecurities. (Reporting by Tracy Rucinski and Jesus Aguado; editing by Elaine Hardcastle)

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