Investing.com -- UBS Global Research maintains a bullish outlook on the US Dollar's continued dominance as the world's primary reserve currency. Despite growing concerns about its sustainability, analysts say that several factors will underpin the greenback's preeminent position for years to come.
While flagging the potential for a more diversified currency landscape, UBS highlights the dollar's deep liquidity, stability, and the stickiness of global currency regimes. Gold is identified as a key diversifier, with central bank buying and other factors expected to drive its price higher.
As per UBS Global Research, the US dollar will remain the cornerstone of the global monetary system for the foreseeable future. This assertion is grounded in several key factors:
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Sticky Global Currency Regimes: Historical precedence suggests that shifts in dominant currencies occur gradually. Despite economic and political changes, the US dollar has maintained its reserve currency status.
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Unparalleled Liquidity: The dollar's dominance in global trade, payments, and derivatives markets provides it with an unmatched level of liquidity, a critical attribute for reserve managers.
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Stability and Safety: While acknowledging the US's domestic challenges, analysts say that the country still ranks highly in institutional strength indicators such as rule of law and market openness. The US's position as a leading technological innovator further bolsters its appeal.
While the US dollar's dominance is expected to persist, UBS mentions the growing pressures for a more diversified currency system. The rise of geopolitical tensions, coupled with efforts by countries like China to internationalize the yuan, are contributing to this trend.
“All in all, we think the dollar’s reign will live on. At the same time, it will likely make some room for competitors along the way,” the analysts said.
However, the brokerage believes these initiatives are still in their early stages and are unlikely to pose a significant challenge to the dollar's supremacy in the near term.
UBS flags gold as a key asset for investors seeking to diversify away from the US dollar. Factors such as increased central bank buying, lower US interest rates, and recovering ETF demand are expected to drive the gold price to $2,600/oz by year-end. The brokerage also emphasizes gold's role as a hedge against geopolitical risks, fiscal concerns, and inflation.
Additional Considerations
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Swiss Franc: UBS recommends the Swiss franc as an alternative to the US dollar, citing the Swiss National Bank's restrictive monetary policy and the currency's safe-haven appeal.
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Geopolitical Risks: While not immediately threatening the dollar's dominance, rising geopolitical tensions could accelerate the shift towards a multi-polar currency system.