🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

Big week for currency markets as central banks meet

Published 07/30/2018, 04:12 AM
© Reuters. Illustration photo of a U.S. Dollar note
EUR/USD
-
BARC
-
CAGR
-
USD/CNY
-
DX
-
DXY
-

By Tommy Wilkes

LONDON (Reuters) - Major currencies stuck to familiar ranges on Monday as investors shied away from taking out big positions ahead of a flurry of crucial economic data and central bank monetary policy meetings this week.

With the Bank of Japan ending a two-day meeting on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve concluding its meeting on Wednesday and the Bank of England expected to raise interest rates on Thursday, investors are preparing for a busy week that could set the near-term course for currencies.

The European Central Bank's reaffirmation last week that rates would remain low through the summer of 2019 hurt the euro and the currency remained stuck around $1.1649 (EUR=) against the dollar in early European trading.

Euro zone inflation data due later on Monday and on Tuesday could help shake the currency out of its recent narrow range, analysts said, although investors appear reluctant to make large bets for now.

"It will be an active week, there is a lot of event risk," said Manuel Oliveri, analyst at Credit Agricole (PA:CAGR). "Markets are pretty much range-bound and it doesn't look like there is much motivation to enter big positions."

Oliveri said that positioning data showed dollar net long positions remained at their largest for several months, and the greenback's recent strength was vulnerable to a reversal of those positions.

The dollar index (DXY) against a basket of six major currencies stood little changed at 94.717 after dipping slightly on Friday.

Upbeat second quarter U.S. gross domestic product data failed to lift the greenback, as markets had mostly priced in strong figures.

More important will be data that incorporates July, which is when tariffs against Chinese goods were activated.

The U.S. currency was 0.1 percent higher at 111.10 yen , with markets preparing to see whether the BOJ is considering taking steps to make its massive stimulus program more sustainable.

Talk about what the BOJ might do includes the central bank possibly adjusting its yield-curve control and exchange-traded fund (ETF) buying schemes. The dollar has eased back from a six-month high above 113.00 yen scaled on July 19 after such speculation.

"While various speculations are being made over the BOJ, we believe they will stand pat on monetary policy. The focal point for us is whether the BOJ hints at future policy change," said Shin Kadota, senior strategist at Barclays (LON:BARC) in Tokyo.

"Opinion about potential actions on Tuesday varies greatly, and the meeting could trigger a market reaction, no matter what the outcome is."

The Chinese yuan continued to weaken. In offshore markets it fell to as low as 6.85 yuan per dollar , close to its one-year low reached last week, before settling around 6.833.

The yuan has been under relentless pressure in recent months because of nervousness about what a dispute over trade with the United States will mean for the Chinese economy.

© Reuters. Illustration photo of a U.S. Dollar note

The Australian dollar declined 0.1 percent to $0.7397 , while the Canadian dollar fell 0.1 percent to C$1.3065 .

(Additional reporting Shinichi Saoshiro in TOKYO; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.