🥇 First rule of investing? Know when to save! Up to 55% off InvestingPro before BLACK FRIDAYCLAIM SALE

Dollar strength consolidates as global recession looms

Published 04/02/2020, 09:22 PM
Updated 04/02/2020, 09:25 PM
© Reuters. A trader shows U.S. dollar notes at a currency exchange booth in Karachi
EUR/USD
-
LCO
-
CL
-
MIEM00000CUS
-
ILS/UAH
-

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The dollar edged toward an almost 2% weekly rise on Friday, boosted by a surge in the oil price and as investors sought safety amid the worsening economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

The gains consolidate the dollar's strength after a topsy-turvy end to last month, which had the dollar soaring in a scramble for cash, then slumping as the U.S. Federal Reserve flooded the market with liquidity.

The largest ever daily gain in crude oil prices helped the greenback to its best day in two weeks against the euro overnight, since the United States is the world's top oil and gas producer.

It held that ground to stand at $1.0838 per euro (EUR=) on Friday - ahead 2.7% for the week. Against a basket of currencies (=USD) the dollar is up 1.8% for the week so far at 100.210, its best performance since mid-March.

Moves in Asian trade were slight since traders are bracing for bad news when monthly U.S. payrolls data is published at 1230 GMT.

The coronavirus pandemic is worsening in the United States and as lockdowns extend, weekly jobless claims already soared to a massive 6.6 million last week.

The dollar was firmer against most other major currencies, last trading at $0.6054 per Australian dollar , $0.5903 per New Zealand dollar and $1.2376 per pound .

It bought 108.00 Japanese yen .

"The U.S. labour market has more or less collapsed," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency analyst Joe Capurso.

"The increase in the dollar because of the poor U.S. economic data reflects the dollar's status as a counter‑cyclical currency.  It lifts when the global economy deteriorates, even if the deterioration in the global economy is the U.S."

CBA forecasts a 200,000 drop in employment, higher than the median estimate of a 100,000 drop according to a Reuters' survey of economists - though like most, they expect far worse to come as the data catches up to the damage in the real economy.

Global coronavirus cases surpassed 1 million on Thursday, with more than 52,000 deaths as the pandemic spread further in the United States and the death toll climbed in Spain and Italy, according to a Reuters tally of official data.

Japanese bank Nomura expects the world economy contracted 18% in the first quarter, on an annualised basis, and is tracking toward shrinking 4% in 2020.

The overnight 21% surge in the price of crude oil futures (LCOc1) to $29.94 gave fleeting support to commodity currencies, especially the oil-exposed Norwegian krone , which hit a three-week high, and Canadian dollar . [O/R]

Flows out of just about every asset in emerging markets in to the dollar continue, with MSCI's emerging market currency index (MIEM00000CUS) sitting not far above three-year lows touched last month. [EMRG/FRX]

"Until the virus peaks, we anticipate the selling pressure will prevail and capital outflows will continue, although the biggest wave may have occurred in March," said Piotr Matys, senior emerging markets FX Strategist at Rabobank in London.

"If a synchronised global recession transforms into depression, then all bets will be off."

© Reuters. A trader shows U.S. dollar notes at a currency exchange booth in Karachi

Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-CURRENCIES-PERFORMANCE/0100301V041/index.html

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.