By Peter Nurse
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar edged lower Wednesday, while the euro saw some support ahead of this week’s emergency EU summit as well as the latest European Central Bank policy-setting meeting.
At 2:50 AM ET (0750 GMT), the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower at 98.983, just below the recently hit 22-month peak at 99.090.
EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.0922, recovering somewhat from Monday's 22-month low of 1.0806, helped by reports that the European Commission was looking at the potential of a large joint bond issue to finance defense and energy projects in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with an emergency EU summit to be held on Thursday.
“This follows last year's initiative that included joint debt to fund a 1.8 trillion euro (~$2 trillion) emergency package. The details were still being worked out, but the prospect seemed to be helping support the euro today and narrowing the spreads between core and peripheral bonds,” said Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.
That said, the European Central Bank also meets on Thursday, and with the likelihood that the soaring commodity prices will stunt growth in Europe this year, the policymakers might delay rate hikes until late in the year.
This contrasts with the likely decision of the Federal Reserve when it meets next week, with Chairman Jerome Powell backing a quarter-point rate increase while telling Congress last week he would move more aggressively later if inflation didn’t abate.
The U.S. moved to ban Russian oil imports late Tuesday, something the majority of its European allies, and Germany in particular, have been unable to do given their greater dependence on Moscow.
“Along with the geographical vicinity and different correlation with risk sentiment, the disorderly rise in energy prices is what is generating a big divergence between the dollar (the U.S. is largely energy-independent) and most European currencies (the region is largely dependent on Russian oil and gas),” said analysts at ING, in a note. “This looks unlikely to change soon.”
Elsewhere, USD/JPY traded 0.2% higher at 115.84, GBP/USD gained 0.1% to 1.3119, near a 16-month low, while AUD/USD climbed 0.4% to 0.7294, helped by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe stating that an interest rate hike this year is “plausible.”
USD/RUB was indicated 11% higher at 117.3550, in the offshore market before foreign exchange trading resumes in Moscow on Wednesday.
Russia’s rating was downgraded to C by Fitch Ratings late Tuesday, with the rating agency saying that a bond default is “imminent” as a result of measures ushered in since the war in Ukraine.