* 3-6 months before positive U.S. economic data starts to strengthen dollar
* Euro seen trading $1.40-1.42 over next 12 months
* Forecasts range from $1.25-$1.51 in 3 months
By Nigel Davies
LONDON, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Positive U.S. economic data may not help out the dollar for up to six months as investors stick to currencies deemed more lucrative as a global economic recovery takes hold, a Reuters poll found on Wednesday.
Despite a largely steady stream of improving economic news in recent weeks the U.S. dollar has struggled against a tide of investors flocking back to more risky assets and currencies.
And 19 of 45 foreign exchange analysts said that it would take between three and six months for a more normal trading pattern to resume where strong U.S. economic news translates into good news for the dollar. Fourteen said it would take just one to three months, seven 6-12, and five said more than a year.
"Though we think positive U.S. fundamental releases will become supportive of the dollar as we enter 2010, we think the broader dollar negative trends will still prove the dominant driver," said Camilla Sutton at Scotia Capital.
Other analysts also said a major turning point may not happen until markets get a better sense as to which major central bank will be first to start withdrawing the immense unconventional liquidity measures they have provided.
A wider sample of 66 analysts in the monthly poll, conducted between Aug. 27 and Sept. 1, showed only a gradual strengthening in the dollar in coming months after trading in a tight band around $1.40 to $1.44 through a steady August.
The euro was forecast to hold around current levels in one month's time before slipping back to $1.40 in three months' time and then hold at that level over the rest of the year ahead. But some were more convinced of a change in fortunes for the U.S. dollar.
"We believe that the USD is close to a turning point against other major currencies, with the downward trend which has been in place since March starting to run out of steam," said Lee Hardman at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
He predicted a much stronger rally in the dollar than most, forecasting the greenback at $1.30 in a year's time.
Hardman said bearish dollar sentiment was at very elevated levels, which was a good indicator that a reversal was near. Along with an economic recovery, the dollar would be helped by the U.S. Federal Reserve scaling back its unconventional monetary policy heading into 2010.
Forecasts for euro dollar ranged as wide as $1.35 to $1.50 in a month's time, and from $1.18 to $1.60 in a year.
CABLE MOVE OVERDONE?
Median forecasts for sterling also look tame, stuck as they are between $1.63 and $1.65 over the entire year ahead.
Those forecasts come despite a much more decisive move in the last month alone, with cable losing over 3 percent of its value against the dollar and the euro.
Against the euro the pound was forecast to pick up over the next year, finishing in a year's time at 83 pence, up from its current value at 88 pence.
While economic indicators such as the PMIs have pointed to a return to growth in the final half of the year, the pound has been hampered by the Bank of England taking a much more cautious approach as it tries to steer the economy out of recession.
"We basically consider recent cable sell-off as short-lived and mostly driven by the BoE's split on further Q/E measures, as revealed by August BoE's minutes," said Roberto Mialich at UniCredit.
The BoE agreed to increase its quantitative easing measures aimed at stimulating demand in the economy by 50 billion pounds, but minutes of its August meeting showed that its Governor Mervyn King and two others voted for a 75 billion pound move.
"More risk appetite and an improving UK economy should prompt a cable rebound in the coming months," said Mialich.
(Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Stephen Nisbet)