🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

Dollar back on trend, hits two-week high vs. yen

Published 01/03/2017, 11:35 AM
© Reuters. Light is cast on U.S. one-hundred dollar bill next to Japanese 10,000 yen note
EUR/USD
-
US2YT=X
-

By Patrick Graham

LONDON (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar racked up its biggest rise in more than two weeks in 2017's first full day of European trading on Tuesday, as dealers and investors in London returned to push the greenback close to December's long-term highs.

One of January's big question-marks, China's yuan, was proving more stable in its more freely traded offshore markets, a bullish survey of manufacturing purchasing managers helping it 0.1 percent higher and also supporting the Australian dollar.

A bout of year-end profit-taking had halted progress in the index used to measure the U.S. currency's strength against a basket of its peers and weakened it to as much as $1.07 per euro last week.

It rose 1.3 percent on the day on Tuesday to trade at 103.51 against the index, compared to a 14-year high of 103.65 hit on Dec. 20. It was up 0.7 percent at $1.0377 per euro and 118.29 yen, the latter rate its strongest since Dec. 16.

Analysts with some of Europe's biggest banks argued for a resumption of the drive that has led the greenback sharply higher since elections in early November on expectations Donald Trump will provide a boost to public spending and growth.

"In the near term the market should probably pick up where it left off, we're certainly seeing that ... this morning," said Barclays' G10 currency strategist Hamish Pepper.

"The past fortnight wasn't a period that materially changed the trend that was dominant into the end of the year and it is hard to see the data or the Fed minutes this week changing that."

A holiday in Japan thinned trade in Asia, but the yuan gained 0.1 percent in offshore markets after the Caixin/Markit survey showed Chinese factory activity picked up more than expected in December, with output reaching a near six-year high.

A rise in overnight rates in Hong Kong also made it prohibitively expensive for speculators to fund bets against the Chinese currency, adding to regulatory moves taken to halt investment-led outflows of capital at the start of the year.

The greenback has been on the rise since September, but its jet higher since Trump's election has prompted speculation of an attack on parity with the euro.

Treasury yields have jumped in anticipation of more U.S. government borrowing and higher Federal Reserve interest rates at a time when central banks in the euro zone and Japan are working to keep their short-term yields in negative territory.

U.S. two-year debt (US2YT=RR) pays 200 basis points (bps) more than German debt and almost 140 bps more than Japanese bonds.

Yet there have been signs of more doubt in recent weeks, with analysts beginning to wonder how much further appreciation a Trump White House will really tolerate once in office.

Analysts from Rabobank said the dollar would need substantial support from further rate rises this year to continue to rise.

"The fact that the EUR/USD spiked to highs close to 1.0653 last week will have worried USD bulls," they said in a morning note.

© Reuters. Light is cast on U.S. one-hundred dollar bill next to Japanese 10,000 yen note

"Although the move higher in EUR/USD was clearly exacerbated by thin volumes, it has helped to illustrate that a move to parity could be further away than it appeared a few weeks ago."

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.